Race for the White House: 2008 - Part 5

[Lois Gilbert]

go for it

[Uli]

[Gordon B]

Walto, I sold some more Huckabee at 12.5 yesterday. He's 12 bid, 12.6 offer right now. I tried to short Charlie Crist at 10, but only got off one contract. Romney is over 25, leading the VP pack.

[tristano's ghost]

Gordon, I saw a poll out of Michigan yesterday that showed Obama up by nearly 10 points. If he continues to poll that well in Michigan, do you think it lessens Romney's chances of getting the VP nod? (A minor attraction of Romney being that he would help McCain in Michigan...but what f JM ends up thinking that he's going to have to write off the state?)

[Gordon B]

Gordon, I saw a poll out of Michigan yesterday that showed Obama up by nearly 10 points. If he continues to poll that well in Michigan, do you think it lessens Romney's chances of getting the VP nod? (A minor attraction of Romney being that he would help McCain in Michigan...but what f JM ends up thinking that he's going to have to write off the state?)

Michigan is still in play. fivethirtyeight.com gives Obama a 74% chance of winning there based on the polls. InTrade markets give him a 80% chance.

The only recent poll, by Rasmussen puts Obama +8. If the next polls by other outlets confirm it, his odds for MI will go up. 538 is projecting Obama to win MI by 4.

Romney's three main assets are:

1. He brings $$$ to the campaign.
2. He can speak articulately about economic issues, shoring up a McCain weakness.
3. He could help in Michigan.

Ohio is the most important state but Michigan is #2 this time around.

[walto]

Romney's three main assets are:

....
2. He can speak articulately about economic issues.....
.....

Funny, he was (at least reputed to be) Governor here for several years, but I never saw any evidence of this alleged articulateness.

[groover]

Yes, Walto, but even if you remove "articulate", the statement holds up.

He can speak... about economic issues, shoring up a McCain weakness

[tristano's ghost]

In addition to 538, I like to follow Electoral Vote and am still surprised at how bad the electoral math looks for McCain right now. Even if you give him both the "tied" states (North Dakota and Missouri) and three of the following four:

Virginia
Michigan
Ohio
Indiana

...he still loses. And that's with him winning Florida, too (which I think he will).

[rollhead]

I watched NBC last night and the Obama headline was --

OBAMA IN TROUBLE WITH WHITE MEN!!

I then turned on the channel that Republicans love to hate, CBS and they said that Obama was leading in almost all demographic categories, except white men, and in that category he was polling better than John Kerry did last year.

Overall, Obama was leading... but NBC didn't mention that.

Of course, that is the way Republicans like it reported, and thus makes NBC "objective" as Fox News is.

By the way, I suspect our resident Anglophile is disappointed that a recent poll showed that the Brits favored Obama 5-1 over McCain.

[Monte Smith]

By the way, I suspect our resident Anglophile is disappointed that a recent poll showed that the Brits favored Obama 5-1 over McCain.

Hardly. The Democrats lead the way in outsourcing enthusiasm for their ideas and candidates to dstant shores. I'm sure the Brits would favor Ted Kennedy's brain tumor 5-1 over McCain.

[Gordon B]

538 has tightened the race to 64/36 whereas the Dem/Rep White House market is 69/31 at InTrade. Obama is trading 66, McCain 30 and Hillary 4.

[Jon Abbey]

does that mean there's 1 percent of people betting Hillary will win as a Republican?

[Scott Dolan]

538 has tightened the race to 64/36 whereas the Dem/Rep White House market is 69/31 at InTrade. Obama is trading 66, McCain 30 and Hillary 4.

The numbers are tightening? Now Gordo, who would have expected that?!

Does this mean I'm not going to win a bottle of Lagavulin from you when Obama doesn't get 317 electoral votes?

[Gordon B]

The numbers are tightening? Now Gordo, who would have expected that?!

Does this mean I'm not going to win a bottle of Lagavulin from you when Obama doesn't get 317 electoral votes?

Our bet is on 300 for one drink. Current 538 prediction is 299.8 for Obama.

The race isn't tightening on InTrade although it's tightened somewhat at 538.
Hillary trading 4.7 is way too high but one has to tie up $95.30 in advance to win $4.7.

[Scott Dolan]

So you don't want to do an entire bottle for 317? Hell, I'm willing to.

[Jeffrey Wozniak]

[Monte Smith]

I made that same joke myself on the Wozniak cartoon thread. Check it out, Wozniak. But what is notable in comparing American leftists to jihadic baboons is that American leftists don't act that way. American leftists, like most of the people one might argue with in a day, are polite and civilized. American leftists are noisy at the water cooler. Jihadic baboons murder and riot and burn.

[Gordon B]

So you don't want to do an entire bottle for 317? Hell, I'm willing to.

If you want to entice a bet, offer a two-way market. How high are you willing to pay for McCain and how low are you willing to sell him?

What's your over-under on the number of people here who have said since late 2000 that the electoral college should be abolished who will repeat the refrain if Obama wins the electoral vote and loses the popular vote? 538 says it's much more likely for Obama to win this way than McCain.

[Scott Dolan]

I made that same joke myself on the Wozniak cartoon thread. Check it out, Wozniak. But what is notable in comparing American leftists to jihadic baboons is that American leftists don't act that way. American leftists, like most of the people one might argue with in a day, are polite and civilized. American leftists are noisy at the water cooler. Jihadic baboons murder and riot and burn.

All this after you berate me for arguing with Gary that there is no such thing as an "American left"?

[Scott Dolan]

If you want to entice a bet, offer a two-way market. How high are you willing to pay for McCain and how low are you willing to sell him?

What's your over-under on the number of people here who have said since late 2000 that the electoral college should be abolished who will repeat the refrain if Obama wins the electoral vote and loses the popular vote? 538 says it's much more likely for Obama to win this way than McCain.

OK.

Here's my two-way market. If I win, I get the bottle. If you win, you get the bottle.

How elegantly simple, no?

I'm sensing your faith starting to slip young jedi.

[Gordon B]

OK.

Here's my two-way market. If I win, I get the bottle. If you win, you get the bottle.

How elegantly simple, no?

I'm sensing your faith starting to slip young jedi.

I never wager based on faith. The second I think Obama is overvalued at InTrade, I'll start dumping my contracts. If he trades up to 71 tomorrow without any new information, I'm out. If he trades down to 61 without any new information, I'll reluctantly buy back some of my short Hillary at 4.7 and buy more Obama.

[Monte Smith]

All this after you berate me for arguing with Gary that there is no such thing as an "American left"?

Sure. One of the most salient features of the American left is that it doesn't show up for a riot or anything else. We have a cultural left, a part of our consensus community that "feels" leftish. But they don't do anything politically. And if a left does not do anything politically then it does not exist in a political sense. In Europe, until recently, there has been a political left. A political left has not existed in the United States since the 30s.

[Scott Dolan]

I never wager based on faith. The second I think Obama is overvalued at InTrade, I'll start dumping my contracts. If he trades up to 71 tomorrow without any new information, I'm out. If he trades down to 61 without any new information, I'll reluctantly buy back some of my short Hillary at 4.7 and buy more Obama.

Wait a minute, do I need to resend a bunch of the e-mails between you, Cappz, and myself that have circulated recently?

You've been predicting some absurdly wide margins. And the whole 317 hooey advanced by FiveThirtyEight just had you giddy.

I'm just trying to get you to actually stand by all this nonsense so I can attached at least a small amount of credibility to all this crowing you've been doing.

[Scott Dolan]

Sure. One of the most salient features of the American left is that it doesn't show up for a riot or anything else. We have a cultural left, a part of our consensus community that "feels" leftish. But they don't do anything politically. And if a left does not do anything politically then it does not exist in a political sense. In Europe, until recently, there has been a political left. A political left has not existed in the United States since the 30s.

You're as bad as rollie when it comes to having it both ways.

[Monte Smith]

You're as bad as rollie when it comes to having it both ways.

Great. I don't mind having it both ways. I can castigate the cultural remains of the left in America and call them leftists and still be happy that this charade is in no way the left that exists in other countires.

[Scott Dolan]

So, there was a left in the mold of classic European leftists in the United States at one point in time?

[Monte Smith]

Absolutely. At several points in the 20th century, there was a left in the USA.

[Root Doctor]

We have a cultural left, a part of our consensus community that "feels" leftish. But they don't do anything politically.

What are the characteristics of our cultural left, Monte?

[walto]

Talks like Ashline, eats like Cherches, dresses like walto, looks like Sisco.

[Monte Smith]

dresses like walto

I don't want to smear an entire block of people like that, Horn.

Roots, the only thing such a large body of people have in common are some of their political ideas which I think we can call leftish and have a broad understanding of. But they don't accomplish in this country what they do in other countries and they don't accomplish in this country their own objectives. The Democrats are voted in as supposedly the party of the left and then they accomplish pretty much rightish things. To me that's outstanding. But to people who consider themselves of the left it's got to be frustrating. They have the ideas of a left, the mores of a left, the language of a left, the culture of a left, and no results.