Baseball 2003

Chris D · March-24th-2003, 03:00 PM

Time to get it rolling, with the openers a week away. The sleeper of the spring for my White Sox has been Esteban Loaiza. He's found a nifty reservoir of offspeed stuff to join the back of the rotation.
Frank Thomas will be the AL comeback player of the year.

Division winner predictions:

AL
A's
White Sox
Yankees
Wild Card
Twins

NL
Phillies
Astros
Giants
Wild Card
Dodgers

Brian Olewnick · March-24th-2003, 03:20 PM

In the AL (the only league that matters), I like the Yanks and BoSox to duke it out, agree that the White Sox look good (but think the Indians might mount a surprising challenge) and, going WAY the hell out on a limb, think the Rangers might put everything together this year.

moneyp · March-24th-2003, 04:03 PM

Bereft of the majority of Baseball Prospectus due to their insidious, hateful, capitalist running-dog premium service, I find myself less pumped than in other seasons.

Brian Olewnick · March-24th-2003, 04:15 PM

That does suck, no? Like heroin, they get you hooked. Wonder how they're doing with subs. But didn't you pick up the hard copy with BP curse candidate Josh Phelps on the cover?

Gordon B · March-24th-2003, 08:41 PM

My enthusiasm is also down this year.

1. I hate Bud Selig as much as the left wing of the Alley hates George Bush.

2. EDO ruined High Heat Baseball by turning the PC version into a PS-2 emulator. There isn't even mouse functionality in the 2004 edition.

3. My favorite team, the Mets, will be mediocre again and my local team, the Orioles, may be downright awful.

Does anybody have a favorite baseball simulation game to recommend? I'm interested in simming into the future, not reproducing 2002.

Sergio Zamora · March-24th-2003, 08:44 PM

Hey, there's Gordon!

Brian Olewnick · March-24th-2003, 08:46 PM

I was looking at Out of the Park Baseball, an independent product that looks pretty good in a bare bones, non-glitxy manner. You download it directly from their site. I actually was going to spring for it the other night and began the download only to discover it was going to take something like six hours, so I aborted. Another drawback is the lack of a Major League license, so it's all fictitious players.

btw, I finally had a good source (Dan Okrent) recommend a reliable on-line betting site (sportsinteraction.com). I haven't opened an account there yet, but have looked at the baseball futures. For the AL pennant, I like the idea of getting the White Sox at (iirc) 13:1 and Texas at 26:1.

Glad to see you made it here, Gordon! I can cross you off the MIA list.

[What the hell was Sergio doing looking at a sports thread?!?!]

Gordon B · March-25th-2003, 11:47 AM

Has anybody picked up Andrew Zimbalist's book on the business of baseball? I'll probably buy it this week.

http://www.brook.edu/press/books/maythebestteamwin.htm

FWIW, I was disappointed in places with BP2003. The Pecota probabilities seemed off the wall for many players. Basically, the Pecota system, not described in any detail in the book assesses the probability that a player will have a break-out year, improve, or collapse.

The BP fielding ratings also leave a lot to be desired. The calculations should be appendixed but they are nowhere in the book.

I'm glad I bought the book but the mean BP quality is way below Bill James' level.

moneyp · March-25th-2003, 12:05 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Brian Olewnick
That does suck, no? Like heroin, they get you hooked. Wonder how they're doing with subs. But didn't you pick up the hard copy with BP curse candidate Josh Phelps on the cover?

Poorly, I hope!

No, haven't picked it up yet. Next trip to the bookstore.

Chris D · March-25th-2003, 01:00 PM

C'mon, people. Make some predictions already.

Is anyone else as sick as I am of this crowning of the Twins as the feel-good poster boys? Of course, they're the White Sox's main competition, but still, it's nauseating. Especially when they keep saying the Sox are "talking trash." Um, sorry, the only quote was from Billy Koch right after the trade for him in December. Everything else is old news from guys who are gone now, like Ray Durham.

I do think the Sox's defense will be better this year, if only because Durham won't be booting grounders at second. D'Angelo Jimenez is a definite improvement with the glove.
I hope you Giant fans love Durham. He's a good player who's wildly inconsistent -- red hot, then in the dumper -- and he's always seemed overly fixated on his power. You get more warning-track flyballs from him than you can believe.

Brian Olewnick · March-25th-2003, 03:23 PM

BP staff writers have their predictions at: http://premium.baseballprospectus.co...articleid=1739

March-25th-2003, 03:31 PM

I don't pay attention to the AL, so I'll make NL predictions:

The playoffs will include: the Giants, the Braves, the D-backs, and
the Cubs.

Brian,
any Roy White cards to post? When I was a wee lad, he opened up a store in the new mall where I grew up in NJ. Roy was there quite often, and had baseball buddies come sign autographs for promotions every month or so--back before the players became whores and started charging for autographs. Roy's store lasted about two years. Those were the days.

Brian Olewnick · March-25th-2003, 03:39 PM

Roy was one of my favorite Yankees growing up. I fondly remember a post-game interview that included he and Danny Cater. White had this basso voice and Cater sounded like a castrati. Pretty funny.

The card images I found were all too large, but there's this:

Chris D · March-25th-2003, 04:20 PM

I'm poised to have an MVP year.

Gordon B · March-25th-2003, 04:24 PM

Roy White was second in the AL in hitting in 1968. He hit .290 to Yaz's .301. Hoss Clarke was one of the worst leadoff hitters in baseball history.

Scooter, Messer, and Bill White. What an announcing trio! They weren't in the same league as cross-town rivals Lindsay Nelson, Bob Murphy, and Ralph Kiner.

Brian Olewnick · March-25th-2003, 04:31 PM

Hey, watch it there, Blewis. Aside from Messer, a world-class moronic sycophant if ever there was one, the others were fine. Rizzuto in his semi-senile way and White, who was actually quite knowledgeable. I was listening to some of the game last night, tearing my hair out over the continued drivel (from Michael Kay and Ken Singleton) about advancing the runner from second with no outs. "The batter's GOTTA get that down." Excuse me, but if it's of such paramount importance (I don't think it is), wouldn't the pitcher be doing everything HE could do to prevent it, like pitching outside to a lefty hitter? Why would it be the batter's failure and not thepitcher's success?

MRS · March-25th-2003, 04:39 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Brian Olewnick
In the AL (the only league that matters), I like the Yanks and BoSox to duke it out, agree that the White Sox look good (but think the Indians might mount a surprising challenge) and, going WAY the hell out on a limb, think the Rangers might put everything together this year.

"Junior" circuit. . .

Someone tell me of a more lethal lineup this year than that of the Redbirds. Now as for our staff. . . . . . .

Chris D · March-25th-2003, 05:14 PM

In my last MVP post, I intended to include this gentleman, MVP candidate:

GoodSpeak · March-25th-2003, 08:02 PM

Good News!

The GIANTS traded Livan "I can't find the strike zone" Hernandez.

Montreal can have him, though I was sad to see Guzman go, too.

Life is good again!

[I wonder if they will let Livan take his golf clubs...]

GoodSpeak · March-25th-2003, 08:26 PM

NL West
GIANTS
(The hated ) Dodgers
D-Backs
Pads
Rockies

NL Central
Cards
Reds
'Stros
Cubbies [not even Baker can save these guys from self-destruction]
Putzburg
Brew-ha's

NL East
Atlanta [and that stOOpid chop]...who else?
Expos [in spite of Livan's sincerest efforts to BLOW 16 games]
New Yawk
Phillies [one 3rd baseman does not a winner make]
The Fish

I don't follow the AL, but really think the As will kick some smug Angel butts and toss the Damn Yankees from the play-offs.

My two cents...

TimMc

BFrank · March-25th-2003, 11:04 PM

The hated Dodgers? Sez who?

Welcome back, Goodie.......from the San Joaquin (Andujar) Valley.

MRS · March-25th-2003, 11:10 PM

Whilst in St. Louis and doubtless enjoying the most fecund years of his career, Andujar had an outdoor pool designed in the shape of, you guessed it, a number forty-seven.

Not only a fierce, Drabek-esque breaking ball, but a touch of class.

Chris D · March-26th-2003, 10:03 AM

Well, Michael, if Cal Eldred figures prominently in the Cards' pitching prospects, there will be trouble. The guy's arm just can't hold up to a full season. Great competitor, though.

I'm all set for the White Sox home opener; our group -- the Federales -- will be out in full force.
With a rejuventaed Frank, Magglio, Konerko, Carlos Lee, Jose Valentin and Joe Crede, we're expecting a season with a lot of

RBS · March-26th-2003, 10:18 AM

LET'S GO METS! LET'S GO METS! LET'S GO METS! LET'S GO METS!

Going to Opening Day next week, and the private party beforehand for 3,000 of Fred Wilpon's closest friends! Wa-hoo!

I got the tickets through work, and if I do meet Fred Wilpon, I'm going to ask him how he feels about my beloved Mets finishing third this year.

And here's the country's biggest jackass:

Brian Olewnick · March-26th-2003, 02:29 PM

Looks like the Yanks will be forced into what the Red Sox are intelligently exploring: doing without the closer for a while and possibly rotating the duty. It'll be interesting to see if the Sox stick with this strategy even if they occasionally lose a 9th inning game. But the idea of using your best reliever in, say, the 7th inning to quell a rally strikes me as a good one. Almost any pitcher this side of Rick Ankiel will hold a 3-run lead in the 9th; it's stupid to automatically put in a Rivera simply because it's a statistical save opportunity.

Chris D · March-26th-2003, 04:21 PM

Isn't Mariano Rivera's injury the same one that he had last year? That's a red flag there.
Where are all our Red Sox fans? They must be visiting the shrine of

Jim Dye · March-26th-2003, 04:37 PM

Well, It's going to be a few years, but the Tigers are finally moving in the right direction. Nowhere to go but UP UP UP!

Very nice to see Trammell and Gibby back again. Heck, even Sparky donned the old number 11 uniform at spring training for old times sake. All that's missing is Ernie Harwell calling the games, and....

moneyp · March-26th-2003, 05:09 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Chris D
Well, Michael, if Cal Eldred figures prominently in the Cards' pitching prospects, there will be trouble. The guy's arm just can't hold up to a full season. Great competitor, though.

Hey, we thought the same about Andy Benes last year.

We'll win a lot of 8-5 games, right Pan Michaw?

Chris D · March-26th-2003, 05:30 PM

Benes has never snapped his forearm clean through, though, has he?
Eldred's had the screw taken out of his flinging arm, from what I understand.

MRS · March-26th-2003, 05:32 PM

Well I certainly hope you're right. Andy Benes' close last year was probably one of the most incredible things I've seen--I still can't believe it. Jock said Eldred is certain to head to the pen. My primary concern is Stephenson being named our three today. Right-handed Donovan fucking Osborne??? Morris, Woody and not much else.

STL 10
CIN 8

We can do it Mone!!!