Old October-11th-2005, 09:01 PM   #1
Gordon B
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Good News from Iraq

It's good news for the anti-war folks because if the Sunnis vote for the Constitution, the amount of fighting will decline to the extent that the US can start planning its departure from the country. It's good news for Bush because Iraq won't deteriorate into civil war, leaving him with no decent options. It's bad news for Al Qaeda but won't stop their terrorism of Iraqi citizens. However, if most of the Baathists and other Sunnis join the Kurds and Shiites in supporting the government, they will gain the upper hand. Best of all, it's good news for long suffering Iraqis. All this is predicated on the other Sunni negotiators joining al-Samarraie.

Iraqis Reach Deal on the Constitution

Tue Oct 11, 5:38 PM ET

Iraqi leaders reached a breakthrough deal on last minute changes in the constitution Tuesday, and at least one Sunni Arab party said it would reverse its rejection of the document and urge its supporters to approve it in next weekend's referendum.

The deal boosts the chances for a constitution that Shiite and Kurdish leaders support and the United States has been eager to see approved in Saturday's vote to avert months more of political turmoil, delaying plans to start a withdrawal of U.S. forces.

U.S. officials have pushed the three days of negotiations between Shiite and Kurdish leaders in the government and Sunni Arab officials, that concluded with marathon talks at the house of President Jalal Talabani late Tuesday.

The sides agreed to a measure stating that if the draft constitution is passed, the next parliament will be able to consider amendments to it that would then be put to a new referendum next year, Shiite and Sunni officials said.

A top Sunni negotiator, Ayad al-Samarraie of the Iraqi Islamic Party, said that if the current parliament approves the measure, "we will stop the campaign rejecting the constitution and we will call on Sunni Arabs to vote yes."

Some other major Sunni parties were not present at the negotiations and it was not clear if they too would be willing to reverse their "no" campaigns.

But the announcement was the first break in the ranks of Sunni Arab leaders, who have been campaigning hard to defeat the constitution at the polls.

Ali al-Dabagh, a Shiite negotiator, said the sides agreed on adding four articles to the draft.

The central addition allows the next parliament, which will be formed in Dec. 15 elections, to form a commission that will have four months to consider changes to the constitution. The changes would be approved by the entire parliament, then a referendum would be held two months later.

Sunni Arabs are hoping to have a stronger representation in the next parliament and want to make major amendments to the constitution, particularly to water down the provisions for federalism, which Shiites and Kurds strongly support.

The other additions include a statement stressing Iraqi unity and another states that the Arabic language should be used in the Kurdistan region, along with Kurdish — issues important to the Sunni Arabs. The fourth underlines that former members of Saddam Hussein's ousted, Sunni-led Baath Party will only be prosecuted if they committed crimes.

Some moderate Sunni leaders once had positions in the Baath Party and fear being barred from politics by the De-Baathification process outlined in the constitution.

"The leaders of the political blocs have approved these additions and amendments and tomorrow they will be announced (read) to the national assembly," al-Dabagh said.
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Old October-11th-2005, 09:13 PM   #2
tristano's ghost
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Hope the scenario goes the way you anticipate it. How is Islamic law shaking out in this whole process? And how likely is Iranian influence going to continue to dominate?
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Old October-11th-2005, 09:20 PM   #3
Gordon B
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tristano's ghost
Hope the scenario goes the way you anticipate it. How is Islamic law shaking out in this whole process? And how likely is Iranian influence going to continue to dominate?
I'm not sure but I don't think Islamic law will be binding. There won't be complete separation of church and state but the country won't be governed under Sharia law, either. London has its constitutional monarchy. Iraq will have its Islamic leaders but it they don't have much actual power, that will be good. Don't quote me because I'm not sure how important Islamic law will be but I agree with your inference that it better not be dominant.

If Sunnis, Kurds, and Shiites can agree to not fight each other, that diminishes the influence of Iran in Iraq. That doesn't mean that Iran isn't a major threat to Western interests because it is.
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