How far will Bush fall?

[rollhead]

In March of this year, papers were reporting that Bush's approval ratings were the lowest in history for any president in the third month of his second term:

Bush's approval rating was 45 percent to 49 disapprove.

Compare Bush's Gallup numbers taken in late March to poll numbers taken at the same point in the presidencies of the six previous men who served two terms:

Clinton: 59 percent approval versus 35 percent disapproval

Reagan: 56 percent versus 37 percent disapproval

Nixon: 57 percent versus 34 percent

Johnson: 69 percent versus 21 percent

Eisenhower: 65 percent versus 20 percent

Truman: 57 percent versus 24 percent

The AP's most recent poll lstands at 39-58. The most favorable I could find was Fox, of course, which gave him 40-51.

Just curious what the book was on Bush's numbers in the next year or so.

[rollhead]

Bush approval dips below 40 percent
NBC-WSJ poll shows only 28 percent believe U.S. headed in right direction

By Mark Murray
Political reporter
NBC News
Updated: 9:46 a.m. ET Oct. 13, 2005


WASHINGTON - It has been weeks since Hurricane Katrina slammed into the Gulf Coast; since gas prices began spiking to record highs; and since Cindy Sheehan, whose son was killed in Iraq, held her antiwar vigil outside President Bush’s Texas ranch. But, according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, the fortunes of the Bush administration and the Republican Party have not yet begun to recover.

For the first time in the poll, Bush’s approval rating has sunk below 40 percent, while the percentage believing the country is heading in the right direction has dipped below 30 percent. In addition, a sizable plurality prefers a Democratic-controlled Congress, and just 29 percent think Supreme Court nominee Harriet Miers is qualified to serve on the nation’s highest court.

"Any way you slice this data, I think these are just terrible sets of numbers," said Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who conducted this survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff.

The poll shows that Bush’s approval rating stands at 39 percent, a new low for the president. In the last NBC/Wall Street Journal survey, which was released in mid-September, 40 percent approved of Bush’s job performance while 55 percent disapproved. In addition, just 28 percent believe the country is headed in the right direction, another all-time low in Bush’s presidency.

Strikingly, much has happened in the time between those two polls — many of them seemingly positive events for the White House. The president delivered a prime-time speech from New Orleans, in which he promised to rebuild the Gulf Coast. He also made several more visits to the region, to examine the damage caused by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Furthermore, he saw the Senate confirm John Roberts to the Supreme Court, and he nominated Miers, his White House counsel, to replace retiring Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O’Connor.

‘Huge question mark’ on Miers
The Miers nomination, however, has disappointed some of the president’s conservative supporters, because they say she lacks judicial experience and a clear conservative record on social issues. According to the poll, 29 percent say she’s qualified to serve on the Supreme Court, while 24 percent think she’s unqualified. Forty-six percent say they don’t know enough about her.

"There is nothing to suggest that people have turned on her," Hart said. "But there is just a huge question mark behind her at this stage. She has to establish her own bona fides."


The poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points and which was conducted from Oct. 8-10 of 807 adults, also finds that strong majorities don’t believe that the recent charges against GOP leaders Tom DeLay of Texas and Bill Frist of Tennessee are politically motivated. Sixty-five percent say that DeLay’s indictment on charges of illegally using corporate contributions for political campaigns suggests potential illegal activity, while 24 percent say the indictment is politics as usual and has little merit. (Since his indictment, DeLay stepped down from his leadership position but still plays a prominent role in the U.S. House of Representatives.)

Meanwhile, 57 percent say Frist’s sale of stock in a company his family runs — just before the value of the stock declined — indicates potential illegal activity, compared with 28 percent who say the charge has little merit.

48 percent want Democratic-controlled Congress
In addition, with 13 months until the 2006 congressional elections, 48 percent say they prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress, compared with 39 percent who want the Republicans to control Capitol Hill. In fact, that nine-point difference is the largest margin between the parties in the 11 years the NBC/Journal poll has been tracking this question.

But Hart argues that Democrats aren’t necessarily responsible for this margin. "It is not that Democrats have done so well," he said. "It is that people are disgusted." McInturff puts it this way: "People are very turned off and unhappy with the state of play in American politics."

People also seem to be turned off and unhappy with high gas prices. According to the survey, 69 percent believe the worst is still to come with energy and fuel prices. Just 25 percent think the worst is behind us.

Because of this generally sour attitude, the NBC/Journal pollsters doubt that Bush will be able to climb out of his standing anytime soon. "His trampoline [is] made of cement," Hart said.

And while McInturff thinks that Bush’s approval rating actually may actually hover between 40 and 45 percent, he says that’s still problematic terrain from which to govern. "It is a very difficult place to be."

Mark Murray covers politics for NBC News.

[JamesH]

I've been reading the news with one motive. To see Bush and his administration fall hard. So hard it would make Nixon's impeachment and resignation look like childs play.

I've seen all of the pieces of the puzzle slowly forming. The kicker will be when the GOP starts turning it's back on the administration and with the war in it's current state of mess I don't see that being too far away.

The most dangerous President in the history of this country is about to fall. It may take another year or even two but I believe it will happen.

[Dr Dave]

Nope. The current standard is we impeach one President per century. No matter how much The Dear Leader screws up, we won't impeach him. He'll serve his full term. Bill Clinton, that bastard. How can you be such a great President and not keep your dick in your pants? It is not for me to know. But if there hadn't been any Monica Lewinsky, Bush would be perilously close to impeachment. As it stands, never gonna happen.

[graypencil]

one can only hope ...

but I still say:

ya gotta get rid of ALL of them ..( you really want Cheney or Hastert for a president ?)

and that's not gonna happen ...

[Dennis_M]

Originally Posted by Dr Dave

Nope. The current standard is we impeach one President per century.

Now there is a specious argument. We don’t have enough centuries of existence as a country to be even remotely close to making a statistically significant statement. The next 100 years might result in many impeachments. LET'S START NOW!

[Monte Smith]

Originally Posted by JamesH

I've been reading the news with one motive.

Wow, I never thought to have a motive for reading the news before.

[GoodSpeak]

The Sheep will kiss his ass yet again.



You watch.

[Slurpy]

Originally Posted by Monte Smith

Wow, I never thought to have a motive for reading the news before.

That admission will rule out any possibility of you working for FoxNews.

[larrycohen]

Originally Posted by Dr Dave

Nope. The current standard is we impeach one President per century. No matter how much The Dear Leader screws up, we won't impeach him. He'll serve his full term.

I think you're on the right track, but you don't have it exactly right. One reason Bush won't be impeached is that we just went through an impeachment. A similar scenario happened 20 years ago. Tip O'Neill told Ronald Reagan that he could have started impeachment proceedings based on Iran-Contra, but he wasn't going to because he didn't want the country to go through another Watergate-impeachment mess again, so soon.

Another reason we won't see an impeachment, even if it's deserved, is that impeachment is largely political. A republican congress would never impeach a republican president. If he was caught stabbing and raping his mother on national TV, they would have him quietly resign, and say that it was for health reasons.

Whether he deserves an impeachment is a whole other debate. I agree that he's the worst piece of crap to ever set foot in the White House, but has he done anything clearly illegal? Being stupid and incompetent, having no vision, appointing your incompetent friends to high office, worshipping the corporate gods - nothing impeachable there.

[patricia]

Originally Posted by larrycohen

I think you're on the right track, but you don't have it exactly right. One reason Bush won't be impeached is that we just went through an impeachment. A similar scenario happened 20 years ago. Tip O'Neill told Ronald Reagan that he could have started impeachment proceedings based on Iran-Contra, but he wasn't going to because he didn't want the country to go through another Watergate-impeachment mess again, so soon.

Another reason we won't see an impeachment, even if it's deserved, is that impeachment is largely political. A republican congress would never impeach a republican president. If he was caught stabbing and raping his mother on national TV, they would have him quietly resign, and say that it was for health reasons.

Whether he deserves an impeachment is a whole other debate. I agree that he's the worst piece of crap to ever set foot in the White House, but has he done anything clearly illegal? Being stupid and incompetent, having no vision, appointing your incompetent friends to high office, worshipping the corporate gods - nothing impeachable there.

I don't think that President Bush will be impeached, unfortunately. Like mob bosses, he has so many "buffers" doing his dirty work for him that they will all go down before Bush will have to take direct responsibility for anything that has happened since he took office. He is a delegator and that, IMO, will save his ass. Several underlings, as they did in Reagan's Iran/Contra unpleasantness, may very well take the fall, while George W Bush will walk away and have his memoirs written for him years from now.

[moneyp]

I wouldn't phrase it the same way, but I agree with Good--(head explodes)

[rollhead]

I don't like this guy at all. I think he is the worst president in my lifetime, but I don't think he should be impeached. The American people bought this pig in a poke, and we should suffer through him.

This nation has such a collective short memory. We need another three years of him... so we won't be so soon at forgetting. The more we have of him, the quicker the rightwing lunacy that has taken over this country will end.

The VAST majority of Americas think that this country is headed in the wrong direction, but I think we need to keep staring at the lights of the oncoming locomotive a little longer.

[crawjo]

I believe that there is an argument to be made for impeachment, possibly, on the grounds of his abetting torture. That might not be the worst thing he's overseen as president (though it comes pretty close) but I think it might be the only thing that rises to the level of impeachment.

I actually think another impeachment scandal would be healthy for this country. Let's put all this stuff out in the open and have a huge, nationally-televised debate, with people in Congress, you know, actually attending their own votes and so forth, instead of the usual C-SPAN coverage of some outraged congressman speaking to an empty room.

I think if the 2006 elections went toward the Dems and more charges came to light, we could see Bush impeached. Convicted in the Senate, on the other hand, seems a very remote possibility. I'd be content just to see him impeached and made to feel uncomfortable. I don't think I would prefer Cheney over Bush for President. In fact, Cheney might even be worse.

[Dr Dave]

Originally Posted by larrycohen

I think you're on the right track, but you don't have it exactly right. One reason Bush won't be impeached is that we just went through an impeachment. A similar scenario happened 20 years ago. Tip O'Neill told Ronald Reagan that he could have started impeachment proceedings based on Iran-Contra, but he wasn't going to because he didn't want the country to go through another Watergate-impeachment mess again, so soon.

Another reason we won't see an impeachment, even if it's deserved, is that impeachment is largely political. A republican congress would never impeach a republican president. If he was caught stabbing and raping his mother on national TV, they would have him quietly resign, and say that it was for health reasons.

Whether he deserves an impeachment is a whole other debate. I agree that he's the worst piece of crap to ever set foot in the White House, but has he done anything clearly illegal? Being stupid and incompetent, having no vision, appointing your incompetent friends to high office, worshipping the corporate gods - nothing impeachable there.

I was being facetious about the one-a-century standard, and I am inclined to agree that incompetence is not an impeachable offense. I'm also inclined to agree that even a videotape showing Bush taking money from Osama bin Laden would not result in impeachment, just early retirement.

Of course, early retirement is what I've advocated for some time, c.f. "A Modest Proposal For The Dear Leader." And it is not impossible that at some point Bush will just go to Crawford and stay there for the remainder of his term, clearing brush all day, hugging his favorite pillow at night. He's really not very good at dealing with adversity; he really might just lose interest and go home.

Well, a fella can dream, can't he?

[lynn]

I rather enjoy the sight of Ann Colter cursing Bush for his betrayal of the far right. I want to enjoy that for a while longer.

I also agree with Andrew Sullivan's statement on Real Time last Friday that those who elected him after the first 4 years of lying and deceit absolutely are getting what they deserve.

Level minded republicans will be racing for the other side of the room when their born twice buddies start serving hard time for corruption and conspiracy.

I heard a comment the other day to the effect that it took Dems 50 years to sink into this pit. The Repubs did it in 10.

[patricia]

Originally Posted by Dr Dave

He's really not very good at dealing with adversity; he really might just lose interest and go home.

I think he's surprised that everyone doesn't share Harriet Meirs' opinion that George W Bush is the most brilliant man she's ever met. Talk about polishing the apple.
He may very well actually believe his toadies.
I was struck by the difference between President Bush's handpicked audiences, nodding like those tacky dogs in car back windows and Ray Nagin taking some of the lumps and flak from his people at an actual confrontation the other day. At least Nagin was talking to real people with real concerns and will probably pay for it when he comes up for re-election.

George W Bush will just add this job experience to his other job experiences and heave a sigh of relief that he doesn't actually have to make a living, no matter how incompetent he is. Anyone else would be barely hanging on to his job in the mail room, or at Wal-Mart as a greeter.

[LennyH]

Originally Posted by mone peterson

I wouldn't phrase it the same way, but I agree with Good--(head explodes)

This was my choice as well.

The biggest drop in the polls is reflecting, for the most part, people's reaction to one specific event (Katrina). The average American 1) Doesn't have a firm grasp on the rest of the shit going down and 2) Has a very short memory

His approval rating should creep up again shortly

[Sergio Zamora]

Even if he's jumped the shark, Nielsen-wise he'll still make the the top 20 for a few of seasons if he brings in some new writers.

[Pedantic Wretch]

I don't know if you're familiar with this rather entertaining site:

http://www.yeeguy.com/freefall/

[patricia]

I have been hynotized by battin' around the Bush puppet for a few days now. Thank you. It's addictive.

[Dennis_M]

What I really like is you can let him get stuck and then torture him.

[patricia]

Originally Posted by Dennis_M

What I really like is you can let him get stuck and then torture him.

I like grabbing him by the seat of his pants and then pulling him through tight spaces, then flinging him across the screen. I have discovered an agressive streak that I had no idea existed. Disturbing.

[GoodSpeak]

Originally Posted by mone peterson

I wouldn't phrase it the same way, but I agree with Good--(head explodes)

Mone....honestly sometimes.



Once in a while the Goodster gets it right.

















sheesh

[GoodSpeak]

Originally Posted by lynn

I rather enjoy the sight of Ann Colter cursing Bush for his betrayal of the far right. I want to enjoy that for a while longer.

Ann Coulter is a braying ass.

Nothing she says or does interests me.

Originally Posted by lynn

I also agree with Andrew Sullivan's statement on Real Time last Friday that those who elected him after the first 4 years of lying and deceit absolutely are getting what they deserve.

We shall see.

Bush and his bully boys have a knack for squirming out from under.

Originally Posted by lynn

Level minded republicans will be racing for the other side of the room when their born twice buddies start serving hard time for corruption and conspiracy.

Assuming there are any.

Originally Posted by lynn

I heard a comment the other day to the effect that it took Dems 50 years to sink into this pit. The Repubs did it in 10.

And three times, too.


Nixon and Bush the First did their share in ten, too.


But the stupid Sheep still swallow their right-wing vomit and vote for their sorry asses in the next goddamed election, too.


The average American voter is a dough-eyed sound byte simpleton.

[Rob C]

Originally Posted by Pedantic Wretch

I don't know if you're familiar with this rather entertaining site:

http://www.yeeguy.com/freefall/

Cathartic!

[rollhead]

I am not sure he has bottomed out yet. But if he keeps falling, I suspect he'll hit his bottom pretty soon. I don't think he will drop much below 35 percent approval. Any predictions? Has he reached a "tipping point" and will he keep falling?

The latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup had him at 37 percent approve -- 60 percent disapprove.

[Darryl G. Thomas]

Bush is the "fortunate son", I think he's fallen as far as he's going to in the polls. The cliche is there's a percentage of folks who'll support him no matter what (and a certain percentage that WON'T no matter what).

The only way he could fall any further is if Iraq really blows up into a full fledged Civil War with American troops caught in the middle and bad poll numbers aren't worth that price.

About the only good thing that may come out of this Administration is maybe, just maybe, the Republican Party will become a more moderate one.

[Dr Dave]

There's a nice summary of Bush's polling numbers at Pollingreport.com. Newsweek has him at 36 percent positive, although with 11 percent unsure.

There's a chart of his past ratings here.

Meanwhile, on the credibility front, 74% of Americans think the U.S. tortured people in Iraq; this after two speeches in a row where Bush said "We do not torture."

[tristano's ghost]

To his knees, to vomit after having had one too many.

Only thing that could lift Bush out of free-fall at this point is a major terrorist attack on American soil. And even that would give him only a temporary rebound... ultimately people would realize that not only has he screwed everything else up--he hasn't even made the country safe from such incidents. Still, a nuked American city might turn things around for him. Maybe he & Bill O'Reilly can work out a deal with AQ.