French Presidential, round 1

[Douglas]

Who goes through to the next round?

Registeration to vote seemingly high, but many undecided and the main candidates not entirely in the clear.

[Monte Smith]

I think the front runners in the polls, Sarko and Sego, get thru to the next round. There is always hope, but I don't think France will again suffer the indignant panic aroused the last time around when Le Pen bumped off Jospin to go to the second round against Chirac. Now that was rich.

[Dr Dave]

I voted for Voynet (Greens) by mistake. I meant to vote for Bayrou. My opinions are based mostly on reading The Economist and talking to my expat friends who live in the Perigord.

My vote, if I were voting, would be for Bayrou, with extreme reservations. He won't do hard reforms, but at least he's not "anti-Globalization," and it is claimed that he might actually be a bit of a fiscal conservative.

I would back Sarkozy, but the man does not know when to shut up. Calling rioters in the banlieues "scum" was not his finest moment. Royal is just another socialist. Le Pen will get protest votes, as he did last time, but he's not really a serious candidate. The rest are ancillary, at least according to Le Monde Diplomatique and The Economist.

[Monte Smith]

Originally Posted by Dr Dave

Calling rioters in the banlieues "scum" was not his finest moment.

Certainly up there.

[Gary Sisco]

Couldn't matter in the slightest, to me.

[Tom Storer]

I think it'll be Sarko vs. Ségo, since they've been number one and number two in the polls all along.

The latest polls have Sarko at 28%, Ségo at 24%, Bayrou rising a bit to 19.5%, and Le Pen at 14%. Le Pen is the wild card since Le Pen voters historically dissimulate when polled and he gets a bigger vote than the polls indicate. Since he's unlikely to win votes from Ségo or Bayrou, any surge for Le Pen would be from Sarko or far-left voters. To get into the second round, he'd have to get over 10% more than the polls give him if Ségo stays at 24%, and since everyone says the results are unpredictable, I think Ségo voters are going to stick with her instead of using the first round for a protest vote like they did last time. Those who desert Ségo are likely to go for Bayrou instead, which would mean the bar would remain high for Le Pen to reach.

But who knows? If Le Pen gets to the second round this time it will be cataclysmic.

[Douglas]

I'm also interested in how the tous-contre-Sarko (anyone-but-Sarko) dimension plays out. The polls have Bayrou but not Ségo beating Sarko in a run-off and with a lot still undecided...

[Tom Storer]

I know center-leaning Socialist voters who aren't impressed by Ségo and plan to vote Bayrou, but I also know plenty of Socialist voters who see a vote for Bayrou as a vote for Sarko. Bayrou's party has always been allied with the Gaullist right and has never voted with the Socialists. They've been well and truly on the right of the left-right divide in France, historically, and they have a tiny minority of legislators. Bayrou says if he's elected he'll forge a grand coalition in the center, but this is greeted with the utmost skepticism by many Socialist voters, who figure he'll govern with Sarkozy's party, which will have the majority of seats in such a coalition. Therefore, they believe, in a Bayrou presidency Sarko will actually be calling the shots. So I don't know if many left-wing voters will swing to Bayrou just to keep out Sarkozy.

The suspense is killing me.

[Gary Sisco]

If LePen won we'd really be talking about a New Europe.

[Scott Dolan]

I thought it couldn't matter in the slightest to you?

[Gary Sisco]

It doesn't.

[Scott Dolan]

And yet you've posted here three times already.

[Clay Fink]

I'm a Le Pew man myself.

[jesus marion joseph]

[Monte Smith]

Quoth Tom: "If Le Pen gets to the second round this time it will be cataclysmic."

I haven't heard anyone seriously bring up the idea that Le Pen could score big again, Tom. But I wonder what the polling was like last time around, when he swamped Jospin. Did anyone predict that? There is a commentator for the Spectator who lives in France, has done for a long time, and says he has never met anyone who will admit to voting for Le Pen, though he is not shy about asking. Which is funny, given that the guy came in second. He might way underpoll. I'm no Le Pen fan myself; amongst his many smaller faults he is also anti-American. Can't forgive that. But flutter he puts in French polite opinion is entirely satisfying.

OK, so Sarko v Sego. Then what? Who runs strongest in a tete-a-tete? Who draws votes from what also-rans?

[Scott Dolan]

Hasn't Sego lost a lot of ground over the last couple of months?

[Tom Storer]

Originally Posted by Monte Smith

I haven't heard anyone seriously bring up the idea that Le Pen could score big again, Tom. But I wonder what the polling was like last time around, when he swamped Jospin. Did anyone predict that?

Don't remember the exact polling figures, but Le Pen did not swamp Jospin. He edged him out by less than 1% of the first-round vote. I believe he was polling a little less than he is now, and then got a few points more in the actual vote. No one predicted it.

There is a commentator for the Spectator who lives in France, has done for a long time, and says he has never met anyone who will admit to voting for Le Pen, though he is not shy about asking. Which is funny, given that the guy came in second. He might way underpoll.

He does way underpoll, every time. The last time, everyone was so sure it would be Chirac vs. Jospin that many left-wing voters either went fishing the day of the first round (beautiful weather, like they're predicting this weekend) or delivered a protest vote for a green or far-left candidate to register their disappointment with Jospin, while fully intending to vote for Jospin in the second round. Ooops. Note that in that election, there were 16 candidates, so quite a field for protest votes. In the first round, incumbent President Chirac got 19.88%, Prime Minister Jospin got 16.18%, and Le Pen got 16.86% after polling a few percentage points less. Abstention was 28.4%, a record for France. The second round was therefore between two candidates who each had gotten less than 20% of the popular vote in the first round. It's no wonder the French are disaffected. In the second round, Le Pen got 17.79%, less than 1% more than his first-round score, indicating that at the time his total maximum electorate was less than 18%--which is already shockingly high for a neo-Nazi in Western Europe.This time he could conceivably do as well, but there are also four fewer candidates, and the third-place candidate, Bayrou, will, if the polls are accurate, get more in the first round than Le Pen did in the second round last time. Also it looks like abstention will be low as opposed to high. Hence I think Le Pen will not do as well as last time and won't make it to the second round. Fingers crossed.

OK, so Sarko v Sego. Then what? Who runs strongest in a tete-a-tete? Who draws votes from what also-rans?

Polls to date show Sarko beating Ségo by a substantial margin in the run-off, as Bayrou voters would more frequently shift to Sarko; Bayrou could conceivably beat Sarko in the second round if Ségo voters adopt an anyone-but-Sarko attitude instead of staying home to sulk.

[Douglas]

Looking back at the polls for 2002 they seem in retrospect not so bad (bit less for Jospin and a bit more for JMLP). This time, if my reading is correct is you have twice as many undecided, what they decide come sunday could be interesting. I hope not too interesting for the sake of the sweepstake at work. Other than that looking at these polls prompts the observation that the Trotskyists are losing ground to the revolutionary communists.

[Monte Smith]

It'll be an interesting election, fellas, enjoy. I'll have to let you rejoice/complain without piping in, as I'm off tomorrow.

The last time, everyone was so sure it would be Chirac vs. Jospin that many left-wing voters either went fishing the day of the first round...

Whaddya know? That's exactly what I'm going to do. I'm off to the Cackalacka coast.

Bon chance!

[Nim Chimpsky]

This has got to be about the most pointless thread there is.

Originally Posted by Douglas

Who goes through to the next round?

You decide. Call us on ...

Why don't we just wait and see?

[Tom Storer]

Nothing pointless about talking politics.

[Nim Chimpsky]

Originally Posted by Tom Storer

Nothing pointless about talking politics.

Agreed. I'd be very interested to hear how people in France see the issues. The British television news coverage that I've seen has been very poor. The only way they seem to be able to approach the election is to ask whether any of the candidates is prepared to adopt a British economic model in order to deal with France's economic problems.

However, having a speculative poll seems to me to be more about betting than politics.

[Monte Smith]

Originally Posted by Nim Chimpsky

This has got to be about the most pointless thread there is.

Oh Christ. This is life! Pointless is the point.

[Paul B]

There's a good story in the current New Yorker about the main three candidates, Sarkozy, Royal, and Bayrou. Seems like the latter would be the best choice.

[Oger]

according to polls:

Sarkozy : 30%
Royal : 25%
Bayrou : 19%
Le Pen : 11%

[Tom Storer]

Everyone is happy that Le Pen's percentage has gone down for the first time in many presidential elections. All the main candidates said some variation of "The real victor tonight is democracy." And it's true that voter turnout is apparently at near-record levels and could reach 85%.

The Communists and even Arlette Laguiller of the Lutte Ouvrière (Workers' Struggle) party are going to support Ségo. Arlette has all of 1.5% of the vote to swing around. On the left the call for "anyone but Sarko" was immediate. But I expect Sarko to get the lion's share of Le Pen's 11% and Bayrou's 18% and win resoundingly.

Sarko's speech tonight was good communication. He started to go overboard, which is his usual problem, with a long list of all the halt and the lame he would protect ("I want to be able to say protect without saying protectionism; to say the nation without saying nationalism"), but reined it in. He floated a new slogan, "le nouveau rève français," the new French dream, a clear reference to "the American dream."

Ségo made her speech over an hour after it was scheduled, leaving the TV election specials exasperated, and as usual it was so wooden and free of affect that it was painful to watch. She is no public speaker. Francois Hollande, head of the Socialist party, said there would be a debate. I hope not, for Ségo's sake.

[Douglas]

I got a presentiment of Le Pen's fate this morning driving out of Paris and seeing that the FN posters that had adorned almost every single concrete pillar last weekend had been covered by someone else's, mainly Besancenot's.

A lot of tactical voting already behind Royal's total it seems - a least that was an excuse of some of the smaller parties. And boy that speech was dead - almost no modulation whatsoever in Royal's voice combined with a French that even I can appreciate is not the most elegent.

And for Nim Chimpsky; the sweepstake went to a far more deserving candidate.

[Monte Smith]

Here on the island, with unexpected internet service, I caught all the results and speeches on France 24 via C-Span. Can't really judge the effectiveness of political speech thru translation (and delivered to another culture), but I can comment visually on Sego's performance. When did she die and get lifted into the cloudy expanses of unblotted white from which she smiles down upon us so radiantly?

[Tom Storer]

She's not dead, she is free. "Je suis une femme libre" is her leitmotif.

Frequently she has worn a vibrant red for campaign appearances. You know, red, like socialism. But for her speech last night she wore angelic, virginal white. Sarko wore a dark suit.

[Coda]

The conservative made it to round 2! This is wonderful news. His mother is Jewish, his father is Hungarian, and he is outspoken in his admiration of America.

I think that the left-wing intelligentsia and media hate him, but the average Frenchman is much more terrified of the Muslim invasion, and that is driving this conservative movement. I have a good friend who is French, and she tells me her relatives are quietly furious about the Muslims.

I'll soon buy French cheese and French wine again!