MLB 2007 - PT 3

Lois Gilbert · May-27th-2007, 02:46 AM

part 3

bobetterblues · May-27th-2007, 04:25 AM

Cleveland Indians in first place.

No big deal.

GoodSpeak · May-27th-2007, 11:29 AM

Giants still languish in fourth....trade ya, BoBetter.

Borat Pri Hagafen · May-27th-2007, 12:49 PM

Got myself a ticket to the Mets-Giants game on Tuesday; Lincecum vs Oliver Perez...

I can't even remember the last game I went to in person. Go Mets! (OK, like 80% of me will be rooting for Lincecum).

Captain Hate · May-27th-2007, 01:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bobetterblues

Cleveland Indians in first place.

No big deal.

I dunno about that bo; let me put it this way: I'm more impressed with their chances for this season than I am about the Cavs. In fact I think the pitching is in much better shape than it was in 97; with Sowers getting a win, Jake Westbrook can take his time coming off the DL. Sabathia was masterful yesterday in getting out of jams without giving up the big inning. Meanwhile the Tribe hitters were all over Verlander, making him use a lot of pitches per at bat so that he was gone after 6.

At this clip Grady Sizemore will dislodge Joe Carter as my alltime favorite Tribe player.

Enforcer · May-27th-2007, 01:56 PM

I picked the Indians to win the Central and the Twins to struggle. So far, so good. I did underestimate the Tigers, though. If they get their pitchers back, they're the best team in the Division. I just don't think they'll survive the loss of key guys for lengthy periods.

Borat Pri Hagafen · May-27th-2007, 02:01 PM

Anthony Reyes sent to AAA. I've seen most of their starts, and Wainwright has been worse than Reyes, but hard to argue with a temporary move to get him throwing right.

Gordon B · May-27th-2007, 02:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Borat Pri Hagafen

Got myself a ticket to the Mets-Giants game on Tuesday; Lincecum vs Oliver Perez...

I can't even remember the last game I went to in person. Go Mets! (OK, like 80% of me will be rooting for Lincecum).

Perez is fun to watch. I saw him pitch masterly against the Brewers in the only game I went to this year. I'll probably take my son to A's-Mets on Sunday June 24, before driving him to his friend's house in L.I.

I love Camden Yards but can't bear to see the Orioles play. Sorry Crawjo. Sam Perlozzo is on the verge of being fired with either Davey Johnson or Joe Girardi replacing him. Will the O's hit and pitch like the 1997 O's if Davey comes back? No.

Borat Pri Hagafen · May-27th-2007, 04:00 PM

First sweep in Atlanta for the Phillies since 1995.

stonemonkts · May-27th-2007, 04:04 PM

Fine Holiday weekend for baseball

Gordon B · May-27th-2007, 04:13 PM

I think Mone mentioned the ProTrade site awhile back. That site and the fangraphs site were mentioned in an article by Richard Sandomir in today's NYT.

One of the fangraphs stats, that Larry and perhaps Jon will like is "clutchiness." It is WPA (Win Probability Added) - a function of OPS. Basically, each time a player is at the plate his team's probability of winning the game is X before the plate appearance and Y after the plate appearance. Y-X is his WPA. If a player's WPA is higher than his expected wins added looking at his OPS, then he has been a clutch player.

2006 most clutch
1. Albert Pujols
2. Ryan Zimmerman
3. Jay Payton
4. Marcus Giles
5. Geoff Jenkins
6. Derek Jeter
11. AL MVP Justin Morneau
13. David Ortiz
153. Alex Rodriguez (out of 162 qualifiers)

In 2005, Ortiz was #1 out of 149 and ARod was #116.
The 2006 leader, Albert Pujols was #142 in 2005.

ARod was around the league average in 2004, below average in 2003 and bad in 2002. His 2006 postseason clutchitude was average because he was bad in all situations, not just clutch ones. Of course one can argue that all situations are clutch in the playoffs because the games mean so much. In summation, ARod has had one average and four poor clutch seasons in the last five.

Ortiz had slightly below average clutchitude from 2002-2004.

It's too early this season for the numbers to mean much but ARod is #114 and Ortiz #181 out of 185.

#1 is Troy Trolowtzki and #2 is Carlos Delgado. It's not that Delgado has been great in the clutch as much as he's been awful in the non-clutch.

bobetterblues · May-27th-2007, 04:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Captain Hate

I dunno about that bo; let me put it this way: I'm more impressed with their chances for this season than I am about the Cavs. In fact I think the pitching is in much better shape than it was in 97; with Sowers getting a win, Jake Westbrook can take his time coming off the DL. Sabathia was masterful yesterday in getting out of jams without giving up the big inning. Meanwhile the Tribe hitters were all over Verlander, making him use a lot of pitches per at bat so that he was gone after 6.

At this clip Grady Sizemore will dislodge Joe Carter as my alltime favorite Tribe player.

I agree. Carmona emerging is huge. And I'm pleasantly surprised by the bullpen, especially Borowski.

The biggest thing, is the improved defense this year. It's making a big difference.

Borat Pri Hagafen · May-27th-2007, 04:26 PM

from Rotoworld...

Pablo Ozuna suffered a fractured right fibula and a torn ligament in his ankle during a bad slide into second base in Sunday's game against the Devil Rays.

I've been saying for years that Troy Tulowitzki is the most clutch player out there. Oh, he's a rookie? Well, I've always thought Jay Payton was underrated.

Gordon B · May-27th-2007, 04:31 PM

One of my favorite stats is BABIP (batting average on balls in play). The average is usually around .290-.295. If a pitcher's BABIP is much higher or lower that that, he's probably lucky or unlucky. BABIP is a good stat for forecasting which direction a player's ERA will go.

Barry Zito this year has been lucky (BABIP = .250, 7th of qualifiers) yet his ERA is 4.70. That's a bad sign.
The luckiest pitchers this year have been Jason Marquis, Dan Haren, and Rich Hill. The unluckiest have been Wainright, Seo and Lohse. Schilling and Sabathia have ERA's under 4 despite bad luck so far.

A better measure of pitching luck would be BABIP adjusted for the team's defense but it's still useful in its simple form.

A pitcher's BABIP is mostly, though not totally luck. K, BB and HR rates together forecast future ERA much better than does current ERA. The difference between the current ERA and the ERA expected from K,BB, HR is usually due to BABIP.

A hitter's BABIP is mostly skill.

Gordon B · May-27th-2007, 04:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Borat Pri Hagafen

Anthony Reyes sent to AAA. I've seen most of their starts, and Wainwright has been worse than Reyes, but hard to argue with a temporary move to get him throwing right.

Reyes has a 6.08 ERA. If he had had average luck/defense behind him this year, his ERA would have been 4.39. Wainright's 6.02 would have been 4.34. Those are defense independent ERA's, found at the FanGraphs site. Kip Wells is another one 5.10 versus 6.01 actual. Has the St Louis team defense been awful this year? It is odd for three starters to allow very high BABIP's on the same team. Looper has been lucky (1 ER/game).

Gordon B · May-27th-2007, 04:51 PM

One more comment on Omar Minaya. Royce Ring and Heath Bell have both been awesome so far this year.

Borat Pri Hagafen · May-27th-2007, 04:58 PM

Heath Bell has been great, but Royce Ring has pitched 2 innings in the majors this year and has been in the minors for about 3 weeks. Sure, his numbers in AAA are great, but they were for Norfolk as well, so not sure what the point is there. I don't think minor league dominance qualifies you as 'awesome', anyway.

Borat Pri Hagafen · May-27th-2007, 05:16 PM

Gotta love the FSN Northwest guy punctuating Putz' K to end the game with
"Hey Now!"

Gordon B · May-27th-2007, 05:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Borat Pri Hagafen

Heath Bell has been great, but Royce Ring has pitched 2 innings in the majors this year and has been in the minors for about 3 weeks. Sure, his numbers in AAA are great, but they were for Norfolk as well, so not sure what the point is there. I don't think minor league dominance qualifies you as 'awesome', anyway.

You're right. I misread Royce Ring's 2007. I've read too many statistics today

Hey Now.

Borat Pri Hagafen · May-27th-2007, 05:59 PM

Bonds (746)

GoodSpeak · May-27th-2007, 06:08 PM

Bonds hits a two-run jack to the deepest part of center field.

#746!

Captain Hate · May-27th-2007, 06:33 PM

New York Yankees -- $208,139,045 -- 21-27
Washington Nationals -- $ 37,347,500 -- 21-30

MRS · May-27th-2007, 06:43 PM

Todd Welleman your starter this Wednesday. The success of my hostas mirrors not that of the club, ah well.

GoodSpeak · May-27th-2007, 10:28 PM

Barry Zito $120,000,000.

Cry me a river.

Enforcer · May-27th-2007, 11:13 PM

Congrats on the sweep, Tribe fans. Cleveland is on a roll. The Tigers were swinging some big bats but never really got it going in this series. They had extra base hits in every inning against Carmona but weren't driving 'em home. That kid was meat last year, but he looks pretty nice now, eh?

bobetterblues · May-27th-2007, 11:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Larry Nagel

Congrats on the sweep, Tribe fans. Cleveland is on a roll. The Tigers were swinging some big bats but never really got it going in this series. They had extra base hits in every inning against Carmona but weren't driving 'em home. That kid was meat last year, but he looks pretty nice now, eh?

Thanks. Carmona is sick against right handers. His sinker is practically unhittable.

Captain Hate · May-28th-2007, 12:02 AM

Thanks Nags, we were fortunate to end up on top of 'em because they were all well played. I gotta get up there for a series in the future.

Chris D · May-28th-2007, 01:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Borat Pri Hagafen

from Rotoworld...

Pablo Ozuna suffered a fractured right fibula and a torn ligament in his ankle during a bad slide into second base in Sunday's game against the Devil Rays.

Saw it in the flesh from the club seats over third base. They said he hurt it on the earlier stumble, so it was amazing he made it to second to aggravate it. And he was safe. And the run didn't score. Three times the Sox had a runner at second with no one out to have them not score on Kazmir. Twice they didn't even move.

Still, if you have to see a classic Javy Vazquez loss -- walking .167-hitting Greg Norton with two outs to have Carlos frickin' Pena to take you out the other way -- and a bullpen implosion, this was the spot. Sister and brother-in-law's season tickets. Still conflicted about the in-seat service, but the AC with flat screen to take a baked-in-the-sun youngster for a half-inning was a godsend.

The club level also has more of a ballpark feel, as you are sitting in a five-row section, than the suites.

Gordon B · May-28th-2007, 02:39 PM

Borat, did you read about yesterday's Giants-Rockies game?

(AP) "Troy Tulowitzki singled home the go-ahead run in the 10th..."

Borat Pri Hagafen · May-28th-2007, 06:34 PM

I was watching; Mr. Clutch!