Rethugicrat Debates

[Gary Sisco]

Discontent over Iraq increasing, poll finds
Americans also unhappy with Democratic-led Congress
By Dan Balz and Jon Cohen
The Washington Post
Updated: 10:34 p.m. ET June 4, 2007
Growing frustration with the performance of the Democratic Congress, combined with widespread public pessimism over President Bush's temporary troop buildup in Iraq, has left satisfaction with the overall direction of the country at its lowest point in more than a decade, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Almost six in 10 Americans said they do not think the additional troops sent to Iraq since the beginning of the year will help restore civil order there, and 53 percent -- a new high in Post-ABC News polls -- said they do not believe that the war has contributed to the long-term security of the United States.

Disapproval of Bush's performance in office remains high, but the poll highlighted growing disapproval of the new Democratic majority in Congress. Just 39 percent said they approve of the job Congress is doing, down from 44 percent in April, when the new Congress was about 100 days into its term. More significant, approval of congressional Democrats dropped 10 percentage points over that same period, from 54 percent to 44 percent.

Much of that drop was fueled by lower approval ratings of the Democrats in Congress among strong opponents of the war, independents and liberal Democrats. While independents were evenly split on the Democrats in Congress in April (49 percent approved, 48 percent disapproved), now 37 percent said they approved, 54 percent disapproved. And among liberal Democrats, approval of congressional Democrats dropped 18 points.

Bush's overall job-approval rating stands at 35 percent, unchanged from April.

Many Democratic activists have complained that the 2006 midterm election results represented a call for a course change in Iraq and that so far the Democratic-controlled Congress has failed to deliver.

Sour mood
Deep public skepticism about Iraq, concerns about the Democrats and Bush, and near-record-high gasoline prices appear to have combined to sour the overall mood in the country. In the new poll, 73 percent of Americans said the country is pretty seriously on the wrong track, while 25 percent said things are going in the right direction.

That gap is marginally wider than it was at the beginning of the year and represents the most gloomy expression of public sentiment since January 1996, when a face-off between then-President Bill Clinton and a Republican-controlled Congress over the budget led to an extended shutdown of the federal government.

Among the nearly three-quarters of Americans expressing a pessimistic viewpoint, about one in five blamed the war for their negative outlook, and about the same percentage mentioned the economy, gas prices, jobs or debt as the main reason for their dissatisfaction with the country's direction. Eleven percent cited "problems with Bush," and another 11 percent said "everything" led them to their negative opinion.

The new poll showed that Americans have recalibrated their view of who is taking the lead in Washington. Earlier this year, majorities of Americans said they believed that the Democrats were taking the initiative in the capital, but now there is an even split, with 43 percent saying Bush is taking the stronger leadership role and 45 percent saying the Democrats are.

That shift occurred across the political spectrum. In April, 59 percent of independents said Democrats were taking a stronger role, but that figure has dropped 15 points, to 44 percent.

The political machinations over the Iraq war funding bill have been the dominant news event in Congress for much of the spring, and the Democrats' removal of the provision linking funding to a withdrawal deadline came shortly before the poll was taken.


In April, the public, by a 25-point margin, trusted the Democrats over Bush to handle the situation in Iraq. In this poll, Democrats maintained an advantage, but by a narrower 16-point gap. There has been an erosion of support for Democrats on this issue, but not a corresponding movement to Bush. Among independents, trust for the Democrats is down eight points, mostly because of a six-point bump in the percentage who said they trust "neither."

Congressional Democrats also are preferred over Bush -- whose own approval ratings remain near career lows -- on immigration (by 17 percentage points), the economy (by 18 points) and even, albeit narrowly, on handling the U.S. campaign against terrorism (by six points).

But it is the war in Iraq -- the most important issue in the 2006 campaign -- that has the most potential to reshape the political landscape.

Overall, 61 percent in this poll said the war was not worth fighting, and nearly two-thirds said the United States is not making significant progress restoring civil order in Iraq. However, there is no such general agreement about what to do.

Immediate withdrawal?
In this poll, 55 percent -- a new high -- said the number of U.S. military forces in Iraq should be decreased, but only 15 percent advocated an immediate withdrawal of all American troops. An additional 12 percent said all U.S. forces should be out of Iraq sometime later this year.

Since the Iraqi parliamentary elections in November 2005, consistent majorities of Americans have said U.S. troops should be drawn down; support for an immediate, complete withdrawal has also remained relatively stable, never exceeding two in 10. And there similarly has been little change across party lines: 25 percent of the Democrats surveyed wanted all American military forces out of Iraq now, compared with 13 percent of independents and six percent of Republicans, with all percentages about the same as in late 2005. Support for the immediate removal of all U.S. forces peaked at 32 percent among African Americans.

Public attitudes about the size of U.S. military forces in Iraq and about the war more generally are closely related to views about the centrality of the situation in Iraq to the broader battle against terrorism, another flashpoint between Bush and congressional Democrats. (In this poll, nearly six in 10 agreed with the Democratic position that the two are separate issues.) Overall, more than seven in 10 of those who said Iraq is an essential component of the terrorism fight wanted U.S. troop levels in Iraq to be increased or kept the same, while more than seven in 10 of those seeing the issues as separate thought that some or all troops should be withdrawn. Among independents who said the United States can succeed against terrorism without winning in Iraq, 70 percent supported decreasing troop levels, compared with 23 percent of those who saw victory in Iraq as pivotal.

This Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone May 29 to June 1 among a random sample of 1,205 adults. Results from the full poll have a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points. Sampling error margins are higher for subgroups.

Polling analyst Jennifer Agiesta contributed to this report.

© 2007 The Washington Post Company

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If the people lead, the leaders will follow. They have no choice coming into a major election year. Both parties appear to be paralyzed. So, if you want them to move, start making some real noise. If you wait for the dims to move on their own, read the above again. With numbers like this, esp if the trends continue into next year, there's no predicting who ends up with what, and so nothing to take for granted.

[rollhead]

Originally Posted by Gary Sisco

If the people lead, the leaders will follow. They have no choice coming into a major election year. Both parties appear to be paralyzed. So, if you want them to move, start making some real noise. If you wait for the dims to move on their own, read the above again. With numbers like this, esp if the trends continue into next year, there's no predicting who ends up with what, and so nothing to take for granted.

Damn, Sisco. You, of all people, trying to inspire people to action?

I thought you coveted your role as "I've seen it all cynic" in politics, who couldn't be troubled with the energy to stir neither mosquitoes nor pot smoke from around your head.

Haven't you been to the "heart of darkness" in the jungles of Southeast Asia and South America ... and back?

Didn't you live in straw hut, surrounded, like Mr. Kurtz, by the skulls of your enemies?

Now, resting on your laurels in your horse ranch/compound (complete with electricity and running water), you receive mass audiences of pilgrims who seek to be annointed by your wisdom -- Vermont's own "Che Guevera of the Green Mountains?"

And you are now counseling people to ACT? Doesn't that belie a sense of naive optimism ... optimism that is beneath a man of your profound breath of wisdom and experience?

I am taken aback!

"Rollhead cried in a whisper at some image, at some vision - Rollhead cried out twice, a cry that was no more than a breath - '"The horror! The horror!"'

[Gary Sisco]

Actually, Rollie, since you insist on presenting yourself as a drooler, I think it's safe to say that I have a track record as an activist that makes you look like a toddler. What movements have you worked in? What movements have you organized? What organizations? What have you *done* in your life that is political as opposed to just mouthing off and voting?

I've been beaten, clubbed, tear-gassed, shot at, once wounded, and jailed for my political ideas and principles. I've shed my own blood for it. I was an activist, often full time, for three decades of my life, in the US and other countries, especially Nicaragua and El Salvador.

Telling the truth about a political system isn't cynicism. Cynicism is denying the truth while pretending its something else. Cynicism is in fact in power today in the US, both parties, to the extent that there are two. Try learning your own language before using it. And try reading "for comprehension," if you can. The latter is not at all clear from your ravings.

In short, fuck you. You are a political buffoon, as is evident to most here, and also a perfect example of at least one reason your party is held in its low esteem: its arrogance and self-righteous obnoxiousness. Good strategy right there. One of the reasons your party is best known for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

If you haven't ideas to argue with, you're not arguing. So far, you're not arguing. You're just raving.

Neither party can attract more than a third of the voting population on its own. Both require large numbers of non-party independents -- a group that includes me -- to vote for them, if they have any hope of winning. Therefore, you might want to think about what it means to insult those who might put your party over, if anyone is going to, because it can't do it on its own. No one in the world, not even the dim party leadership, gives a fuck what dim loyalists and kneejerks think or want, because they are entirely taken for granted, talk about cynicism, by everyone concerned. In the end, no matter what, they will they will vote dim. That alone means that no one cares what they think or want.

[Gordon B]

Originally Posted by Gary Sisco

You[Rollhead] are a political buffoon, as is evident to most here...
If you haven't ideas to argue with, you're not arguing. So far, you're not arguing. You're just raving.

That's why I have him on ignore. If Waggoner doesn't agree with somebody's position, he doesn't post counter-arguments. He calls the other person names. I don't know if it's because he has a low threshold for discussion with those who don't hold his boilerplate Democratic Party positions or if it's because he's insecure and lacks confidence that he could hold his own in a calm, non-personal discussion or debate of the issues.

[Gary Sisco]

I'd guess, like too many, he simply doesn't have any ideas of his own to articulate.

Parrots don't need ideas. They only need someone to train them what to say.

[Uli]

Rollie for me is a welcome break from the endless libertarian litanies in the political debates here.

[Gary Sisco]

Republirats abandon ship in record numbers, but the people are equally disgusted with the dim congress.

Republicans abandoning Bush
NBC/WSJ poll: President’s, Congress’ ratings drop to lowest levels ever
By Mark Murray
Deputy political director
NBC News
Updated: 8:05 p.m. ET June 13, 2007
WASHINGTON - As President Bush attempts to revive the controversial immigration reform bill he supports, the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finds that Republicans are abandoning the president, which has dropped his job-approval rating below 30 percent -- his lowest mark ever in the survey.

But he isn’t the only one whose support is on the decline in the poll. Congress’ approval rating has plummeted eight points, bringing it below even Bush’s. And just one in five believe the country is on the right track, which is the lowest number on this question in nearly 15 years.

Republican pollster Neil Newhouse, who conducted the survey with Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, argues that these numbers have crossed below the political “Mendoza line,” referring to the feeble .200 batting-average mark in baseball. “With the mood of the country dropping below 20, and the president’s approval below 30, both are candidates for a sort of political Mendoza line,” he says.

In the poll, Bush’s approval rating is at just 29 percent. It’s a drop of six points since April, and it represents his lowest mark ever on this question in the NBC/Journal poll.

Democratic pollster Jay Campbell, who works with Hart, attributes this decline to Republicans. Back in April, 75 percent of Republicans approved of Bush’s job performance, compared with 21 percent who disapproved. Now, only 62 percent of Republican approve, versus 32 percent who disapprove.

This drop comes as Bush tries to resuscitate the comprehensive immigration reform bill in the U.S. Senate, which has angered many Americans -- particularly conservatives -- because they believe its provisions allowing for a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants amount to “amnesty.” Bush and other supporters of the legislation dispute that charge.


“This is a highly emotional issue,” Bush said of the legislation while visiting Capitol Hill on Tuesday. “But those of us standing here believe now is the time to move a comprehensive bill that enforces our borders and has good workplace enforcement, that doesn't grant automatic citizenship, that addresses this problem in a comprehensive way.”

Campbell speculates that the debate over the Senate immigration bill -- and the passions it has stirred -- is largely responsible for the decline in GOP support for Bush. “It seems like a pretty good guess that a large portion of the drop is immigration related,” he says.

Also in the poll, only 23 percent approve of the job that Congress is doing, a decline of eight points since April. That number is within striking distance of the 16-percent rating Congress held in October 2006, just before Republicans lost control of both the Senate and House in last year’s midterms.


While Campbell says that the low approval rating reflects “poorly on the Democratic leadership” in Congress, he wouldn’t hit the panic just yet if he were Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif. “If these numbers were popping up six months, eight months from now, then I’d be concerned.”

Furthermore, the survey -- which was taken of 1,008 adults from June 8-11, and which has a margin of error of plus-minus 3.1 percentage points -- shows that just 19 percent believe the country is headed in the right direction. That’s the lowest number on that question in nearly 15 years.

By comparison, a whopping 68 percent think the country is on the wrong track.

Campaign trail
Turning to the 2008 presidential election, New York Sen. Hillary Clinton has widened her lead in the contest for the Democratic nomination, while Fred Thompson -- the former Tennessee GOP senator who has established a “testing the waters” presidential committee, but who hasn’t officially announced he’s running -- comes in a surprising second in the Republican field.

In the Democratic race, Clinton has a 14-point lead (39-25 percent) over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama. They’re followed by former North Carolina Sen. Edwards at 15 percent; no other Democratic presidential candidate registers at more than 4 percent in the poll. In April, Clinton had just a five-point lead (36-31 percent) over Obama, and Edwards was at 20 percent.

“It appears that Obama has not been able to follow up his initial surge with a second act,” says Newhouse, the GOP pollster. “Being an ‘exciting and inspirational choice’ to Democrats seems not enough to overcome Hillary's experience and credentials.”

“Hillary’s lead has certainly strengthened,” Campbell adds. “As of right now, people seem to think she is the direction they want to go in.”


In the GOP field, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani leads the pack at 29 percent. Fred Thompson comes in second at 20 percent, and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Arizona Sen. John McCain are tied for third at 14 percent each.

“At this early stage of his candidacy, Thompson has become ‘the conservative’ candidate in the GOP primary,” Newhouse explains. “He has picked up support from both Rudy and McCain… GOP voters give credit to McCain for being experienced and having the credentials for the job, but they seem to lack the passion for his candidacy they showed when he ran in the 2000 primaries.”

The top two Democrats, though, seem to have upper hand in potential match-ups against the top two Republicans. According to the poll, Clinton leads Giuliani, 48-43 percent (a reversal since March, when Giuliani led Clinton by five points). And Obama tops Thompson, 50-31 percent.

Mark Murray covers politics for NBC News.

© 2007 MSNBC Interactive© 2007 MSNBC Interactive

[Gary Sisco]

http://www.tompaine.com/articles/200...s_oxymoron.php