DEAD DEAD DEAD??

[walto]

August 1, 2009

Swan Songs?
By CHARLES M. BLOW
The music industry’s deathwatch kicked off about a decade ago, but it seems the vigil could soon be over.
According to data from the Recording Industry Association of America, since music sales peaked in 1999, the value of those sales, after adjusting for inflation, has dropped by more than half. At that rate, the industry could be decimated before Madonna’s 60th birthday.
The speed at which this industry is coming undone is utterly breathtaking.
First, piracy punched a big hole in it. Now music streaming — music available on demand over the Internet, free and legal — is poised to seal the deal.
The problem is that if people can get the music they want for free, why would they ever buy it, or even steal it? They won’t. According to a March study by the NPD Group, a market research group for the entertainment industry, 13- to 17-year-olds “acquired 19 percent less music in 2008 than they did in 2007.” CD sales among these teenagers were down 26 percent and digital purchases were down 13 percent.
And a survey of British music fans, conducted by the Leading Question/Music Ally and released last month, found that the percentage of 14- to 18-year-olds who regularly share files dropped by nearly a third from December 2007 to January 2009. On the other hand, two-thirds of those teens now listen to streaming music “regularly” and nearly a third listen to it every day.
This is part of a much broader shift in media consumption by young people. They’re moving from an acquisition model to an access model.
Even if they choose to buy the music, the industry has handicapped its ability to capitalize on that purchase by allowing all songs to be bought individually, apart from their albums. This once seemed like a blessing. Now it looks more like a curse.
In previous forms, you had to take the bad with the good. You may have only wanted two or three songs, but you had to buy the whole 8-track, cassette or CD to get them. So in a sense, these bad songs help finance the good ones. The resulting revenue provided a cushion for the artists and record companies to take chances and make mistakes. Single song downloads helped to kill that.
A study last year conducted by members of PRS for Music, a nonprofit royalty collection agency, found that of the 13 million songs for sale online last year, 10 million never got a single buyer and 80 percent of all revenue came from about 52,000 songs. That’s less than one percent of the songs.
So it was no surprise that The Financial Times reported on Monday that Apple is working with the four largest labels to seduce people into buying more digital albums. It’s too little too late.
(Note: I wrote this column while listening to “The Miseducation of Lauryn Hill,” the last truly great CD I ever bought. Every track is a gem. When did I buy it? 1999.)

Copyright 2009 The New York Times Company

[walto]

[Gordon B]

Originally Posted by walto

(Note: I (Charles Blow) wrote this column while listening to “The Miseducation of Lauryn Hill,” the last truly great CD I ever bought. Every track is a gem. When did I buy it? 1999.)

Do any JCS people remember the endless ads for that cd at Music Boulevard?

[Uli]

Originally Posted by Gordon B

Do any JCS people remember the endless ads for that cd at Music Boulevard?

I remember the hoopla about it. i had it (the kids bought i think). Nice cd, but the last truly great CD? It's beyond me how people come up with these overarching generalizations from their feelings.

[walto]

I know what you mean, Uli, but, to be fair, I think he just said it was the last great CD HE ever bought.

[Uli]

Originally Posted by walto

I know what you mean, Uli, but, to be fair, I think he just said it was the last great CD HE ever bought.

Sure, yet he thinks that the industries' attempt to induce album sales is too late because he thinks every song on that album is a gem.

[stonemonkts]

It was(is) an excellent CD.

[scotpgot]

He may be right that full albums may be dead, but I see no reason to pronounce the music industry as a whole at this point. They'll simply have to redefine the way that they do business. If consumers are only buying one track at a time, I can't imagine there to be a permanent and unsolvable hurdle that artists can't simply produce one track at a time.

Furthermore, as a distribution source the internet is still quite young. Options for streaming, download, purchase, and all kinds of other things will soon be available (I would imagine) directly from the record companies' website, rather than going through iTunes or eMusic or whatever.

[Uli]

The single song vs album issue seems to be more important in the more hit oriented pop sector. Obviously that's where the bulk of sales is.but I don't know that there can be an intelligent discussion around this issue in other musics.

[stonemonkts]

This CD harkens back to thematically linked plot-driven albums such as the ones put out by The Kinks back when:



The songs from this CD work fine on their own, but the full impact of this comes through when digesting it as a whole piece.

[Gary Sisco]

The world's changing again. Happens all the time. The industry will change with it or it won't, in which case it will disappear as we've known it. Music and recording will continue regardless.

But I do remember this free to user streaming device that was called a radio.

Also, the stat people might want to factor in the worst economic times in decades. Recession effects are felt at the bottom first (so have been felt longer) and then upward. Same thing happens in reverse during a recovery; the lower rungs feel one's effects later. There are a lot of people, myself included, who simply can't afford to buy CDs. Therefore, they aren't selling any to us.

[bigtiny]

Originally Posted by scotpgot

He may be right that full albums may be dead, but I see no reason to pronounce the music industry as a whole at this point. They'll simply have to redefine the way that they do business. If consumers are only buying one track at a time, I can't imagine there to be a permanent and unsolvable hurdle that artists can't simply produce one track at a time.

Furthermore, as a distribution source the internet is still quite young. Options for streaming, download, purchase, and all kinds of other things will soon be available (I would imagine) directly from the record companies' website, rather than going through iTunes or eMusic or whatever.

Hah!!! Think again.....the recording industry has already proven time and time again that it doesn't have a CLUE what to do with downloading and streaming. It's no coincidence that the iTunes store is run by Apple instead of a record label....they were too late to the game, and when several of the majors did put up online content, the sites sucked and were totally overpriced. You have to remember this business is run by gangsters with law degrees. They don't understand music, they don't understand people who buy music, and they don't understand how to do business when they have to genuinely compete.....I find it pleasingly ironic that after narrowing their industry down to mega-video-popculture icons, they're getting killed because those fans have no compuction (sic?) about finding 'other' means to get their music.

The happiest day of my life will be when these dinosaurs are gone!!

bigtiny

[Monte Smith]

“The Miseducation of Lauryn Hill,” the last truly great CD I ever bought. Every track is a gem. When did I buy it? 1999.

Ha! I have a pirated copy of that.

[me wag]

I think we are about at the point where musicians will have to give up thinking they can make money off recordings and begin to view them as promotional tools for their concerts/gigs/shows. Not unlike music videos were used back in the 80's, 90's.

Of course, I'm not sure if people really want to get off their ass to go to shows either.

[Gentle Giant]

scotpgot, there's a name from the past!

Here's what I think. LPs were a groovy way to acquire upwards of 45 minutes of music. Then CDs came along, promising 80 minutes of pristine sound reproduction, which cost 1-1/2 times what an LP cost, even though few releases exploited the capability. Then artists started thinking they should really be filling all those 1s and 0s with music. So 75-minute CDs became common. Only trouble was, they had only 15 minutes of decent music on them. And lo and behold, you could buy just those 15 minutes, or 10 or 5, without having to buy the whole cruddy thing. And that's what folks decided to do.

So maybe what's needed is for artists to make really good records with just the amount of music that people want to listen to, and only the best stuff they've recorded, and sell it for a fair price, and maybe people will be happy to buy CDs again.

[Runawayjazz]

Originally Posted by Gentle Giant

scotpgot, there's a name from the past!

Here's what I think. LPs were a groovy way to acquire upwards of 45 minutes of music. Then CDs came along, promising 80 minutes of pristine sound reproduction, which cost 1-1/2 times what an LP cost, even though few releases exploited the capability. Then artists started thinking they should really be filling all those 1s and 0s with music. So 75-minute CDs became common. Only trouble was, they had only 15 minutes of decent music on them. And lo and behold, you could buy just those 15 minutes, or 10 or 5, without having to buy the whole cruddy thing. And that's what folks decided to do.

So maybe what's needed is for artists to make really good records with just the amount of music that people want to listen to, and only the best stuff they've recorded, and sell it for a fair price, and maybe people will be happy to buy CDs again.

Gentle Giant,
That was an excellent post. You should send it to the music execs.

[Bill Barton]

I agree! Well said, GG!

[gonzo]

i work in cd/dvd department at a book store. the cd section of the department once took up the majority of the department. now it only makes up about 1/4 of the department. sales are way down so hours for each employee are cut way back. thank god we have good benefits.

[walto]

and maybe people will be happy to buy CDs again.

I don't understand why people would be happy to buy CDs again, even if all the music on each were terrific. What do they need this plastic for if this same excellent music can be owned without it?

[scotpgot]

Originally Posted by walto

I don't understand why people would be happy to buy CDs again, even if all the music on each were terrific. What do they need this plastic for if this same excellent music can be owned without it?

For me, there's still a certain pleasure to opening up the case. Thumbing through liner notes, looking at the cover art, putting the CD in the player. Listening to music (as well as reading a book) at least in part remains a visceral experience.

[Gentle Giant]

Originally Posted by scotpgot

For me, there's still a certain pleasure to opening up the case. Thumbing through liner notes, looking at the cover art, putting the CD in the player. Listening to music (as well as reading a book) at least in part remains a visceral experience.

Personally, I agree, but to Walter's point, the younger generation who comprise the major consumer segment for music (I would guess) don't have that "visceral experience" as a cultural touchstone. They're used to low-footprint, download-and-go data files. Owning plastic, or vinyl/cardboard, items has little intrinsic value.

A further challenge for the recording industry, then, is to either make plastic more desirable to own, or get rid of it altogether, as at some point revenues won't justify the costs. Regardless, music lovers over 35 or 40 will not likely be able to influence the marketplace.

[Gary Sisco]

Which means that, as happened with vinyl, there will come a time when CDs are wanted again. Then we can cash in.

[Chris D]

Except CDs don't have the inherent esthetic appeal of LPs.

[Gary Sisco]

To you. To me. To others? Someday people will want to own the "original" CD, guaranteed.

[Bill Barton]

Having recently completed a move and being surrounded by as-yet-unpacked boxes of CDs I can relate to the low-footprint concept but - being an old fart - I still prefer a physical object. It's kind of scary just how many of those objects are currently piled up along the wall of the living room!

If indeed CDs eventually become sought-after collectors' items as Gary suggests what do you suppose "limited edition" CD-Rs will be? The equivalent of "test pressings"? Just a random thought...

[Sergio Zamora]

Originally Posted by Gary Sisco

Which means that, as happened with vinyl, there will come a time when CDs are wanted again. Then we can cash in.

As far as future appeal goes, CDs may turn out to be more like 8-track tapes than like vinyl.

[Gary Sisco]

Mark my words. Everything becomes collectible at some point, and those who are collecting will pay.

Bill -- I hear ya, having moved last year. The part of my collection that will be doing any significant growing is digital. Apart from the special new release now and then, I'm buying CDs only at gigs, and not always then. I have way too many books, CDs, lp's etc for this little house.

[Jesse]

A new series starring inveterate, itinerant musician, mucker and cannabis head Gary Sisco.
Follow Gary as he transplants from the halcyon, hippie daze of Vermont to the salt-of-the-earth terra firma of Bluegrass country. Gary spend his days both down-sizing and upgrading, spinnin' bebop and eai, and occasionally delivering his patented broadsides against America's idiocracy.

Currently: Sisco on Facebook!

[Jon Abbey]

Originally Posted by Chris D

Except CDs don't have the inherent esthetic appeal of LPs.

some of them do, despite the size.

[Mark of Cenla]

Originally Posted by Jon Abbey

some of them do, despite the size.

I much prefer CD's to vinyl LP's, in every way. But that is just me. I do a fair amount of downloading music from Amazon.com because I can buy much more music. For $50 I can buy downloads of five albums, but I could get only three if I bought the CD's. But I always make CD's of the downloaded music, and store them in jewel boxes. I like making the inserts. I look forward to buying music on flash drives. Peace and goodwill.