Predictions on the Recall

Monte Smith · October-6th-2003, 04:39 PM

I'd be interested in seeing folks' best guesses on what will happen with tomorrow's election.

The way I see it:

Schwarzenegger: 40%
Bustamante: 30%
McClintock: 18%
Camejo: 1%
Other candidates: 11%

YES: 55-60%
NO: 40-45%

GoodSpeak · October-6th-2003, 04:42 PM

The AH-nold wins.

We get the newly reformed groper and fulltime action toy.

The state gets screwed.

October-6th-2003, 04:45 PM

Why so angry, Goodz?

Squaredancecalling Steve · October-6th-2003, 05:02 PM

Sonoma County is expected to vote 2-1 against the recall. The rest of the state will see that California gets the government it deserves.

GoodSpeak · October-6th-2003, 05:42 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Scott Dolan
Why so angry, Goodz?

I have to live here.

October-6th-2003, 06:25 PM

Yeah, that'd piss me off too...............

jesus marion joseph · October-6th-2003, 06:41 PM

Well, I just hope that whatever happens, recall or no, Arnold or whomever, that things start getting better in Cali. It's a great place to visit.

GoodSpeak · October-6th-2003, 06:44 PM

It will.

I'm just not convinced things are as bad right now as they claim.

Drop by and say hello next time ;-)

jesus marion joseph · October-6th-2003, 06:50 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by GoodSpeak
It will.

I'm just not convinced things are as bad right now as they claim.

Drop by and say hello next time ;-)

I will, I promise.

Captain Hate · October-6th-2003, 07:52 PM

Court challenges forever and a day.

GoodSpeak · October-6th-2003, 11:53 PM

And the republicans accuse the Demo's of supporting lawyers too much.

This recall ought to net MILLIONS for the legal profession.

Way ta go, Issa.

BFrank · October-7th-2003, 12:18 AM

Not to mention the millions of $$ spent just to support this wrong-headed circus.

Can you spell "f-i-a-s-c-o"

gonzo · October-7th-2003, 12:31 AM

although it is my intention to vote for bustamante, i think that arnold will win(please god no!!!!!!!.

GoodSpeak · October-7th-2003, 02:04 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by BFrank

Can you spell "f-i-a-s-c-o"

Sure: G-O-P

Jazzooo · October-7th-2003, 04:51 PM

Record turnout so far.

I bet it's No on the recall, and Bustamante does well enough to beat Arnold.

Pete C · October-7th-2003, 07:05 PM

My money's on Camejo. I voted for him for president in '76, my first presidential election.

Monte Smith · October-7th-2003, 08:25 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Pete C
My money's on Camejo. I voted for him for president in '76, my first presidential election.

Hahahaha! A-hahahahaha!

Couldn't take Carter, huh?

Gordon B · October-7th-2003, 09:31 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Pete C
My money's on Camejo. I voted for him for president in '76, my first presidential election.

You told me a few weeks ago on one of the threads that you didn't consider yourself a socialist. How have your views changed from 1976 to the present?

Gordon B · October-7th-2003, 09:33 PM

Prediction: At 8:00:01 PM PDT, the recall will get a check next to "Yes" and Arnold S. will be declared his successor.

Monte Smith · October-7th-2003, 10:22 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Gordon B
Prediction: At 8:00:01 PM PDT, the recall will get a check next to "Yes" and Arnold S. will be declared his successor.

Hey, don't go out on a limb there, Mr. Put Your Money Where Your Politics Are!

That's your predictive model?

Sheesh. Yuk yuk.

bluenoter · October-7th-2003, 10:37 PM

Okay, I'll go out on a limb:

1. Davis won't be recalled.

2. The outcome of the election won't be official for at least a week.

Monte Smith · October-7th-2003, 10:41 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by bluenoter
Okay, I'll go out on a limb:

1. Davis won't be recalled.

2. The outcome of the election won't be official for at least a week.

I'll buy 2).

1). No way.

bluenoter · October-7th-2003, 10:58 PM

Remember, I didn't say that the recall would be defeated on the ballot; I said that Davis wouldn't be recalled. Something is going to happen to prevent it.

Gordon B · October-7th-2003, 11:06 PM

Gordon B · October-7th-2003, 11:07 PM

CNN projected Yes and Arnold as winners right at 11PM.

GoodSpeak · October-7th-2003, 11:15 PM

Get it while its CHEAP, Gordon.

Monte Smith · October-7th-2003, 11:21 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by bluenoter
Something is going to happen to prevent it.

Unless that something is an election, I can't see it standing before the law. Granted, the law hasn't ever stopped the Dems (Florida, New Jersey).

Monte Smith · October-7th-2003, 11:26 PM

Now the next immediate steps are unclear. When does Gray Davis vacate the gubenatorial office? Immediately? In a month? What's the statute on this or is there one? When does Davis cease wielding gubenatorial power? When does Schwartzenegger begin weilding it? Christ, I am glad this is not a national election: sloppy, sloppy, sloppy. But that is Federalism for you.

Underhound · October-7th-2003, 11:43 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Monte Smith
I'd be interested in seeing folks' best guesses on what will happen with tomorrow's election.

The way I see it:

Schwarzenegger: 40%...

...NO: 40-45%

Considering that a No vote equals a vote for Davis, it is entirely possible under this scenario that Arnold could become govenor with fewer votes than Davis.

Monte Smith · October-7th-2003, 11:48 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Underhound
Considering that a No vote equals a vote for Davis, it is entirely possible under this scenario that Arnold could become govenor with fewer votes than Davis.

Of course that is true, given the two tier nature of this ballot. The amazing thing will be if Arnold gets an absolute majority over not just Bustamante but Davis. That'd be extraordinary. But the way the law sets this up, its yea or nay on the incumbent and then plurality wins for the successor.

Shitty thing, that pre-existing law.