The more it gets better, the worse it will get

[Gary Sisco]

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A weblog of the post 9/11 world

By Tom Regan | csmonitor.com

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updated 12:00 p.m. ET November 12, 2003

CIA: Support for Iraq resistance growing

According to Knight-Ridder a new, top-secret CIA report from Iraq warns that growing numbers of Iraqis are concluding the US-led coalition can be defeated, and are supporting the resistance. The report, which landed on the desks of senior US officials Monday, describes the political and security situation in Iraq as "bleak," and says efforts to create a democracy in the country could collapse if action is not taken immediately. The Guardian notes that one military assessment now places the number of insurgents at 50,000. Reuters reports that the weekend killing of a US-appointed mayor by US soldiers could drive a serious wedge between coalition forces and Shiites, who have largely supported the US occupation, leading them to join Sunnis in the insurgency against the US occupation.

Officials say that Paul Bremer, head of the US-led Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq, "essentially endorses" the report, which runs contrary to the picture that has been depicted by the Bush administration recently. Knight-Ridder writes that the speed of the leak suggests that senior US policy makers want to make sure the assessment reaches President Bush. These officials say that the bleaker assessments of Iraq seldom reach the president, as they are deflected by Vice President Dick Cheney, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, and other hard-liners, who instead give much more optimistic reports.

The CIA report, one official said, also warned that the more aggressive US counterinsurgency tactics become (tactics which have been threatened by Lieutenant General Ricardo Sanchez, the head of ground forces in Iraq), the more they will induce Iraqis to join the resistance. Fred Kaplan writes in Slate that the new anti-insurgency measures in "postwar Iraq" really mean that we've moved into "Iraq War—Phase II."

The big question is whether the renewed offensive will truly defeat the insurgents, as Gen. Sanchez guarantees – or whether, in the process of "taking the fight into the safe havens," it will only swell the insurgents' ranks. It has widely been speculated that the insurgents have two aims: first, to kill the American occupiers; second, by doing so, to force the Americans to take more aggressive action, and thus further alienate Iraqi civilians. It's a very fine line, and walking it will be Sanchez's most challenging task as a commander.
Arab new agency Al Jazeera reports how these tough new US measures backfired in one incident. During one raid, US soldiers bound a group of Iraq women and children, some as young as six, enflaming local residents. When Al Jazeera sent the pictures to US military headquaters in Florida, and asked for a comment, it was warned not to publish the pictures. "It would be irresponsible," said Major David Farlow. "I can't second guess what has happened here without knowing all the facts, but US forces operating in Iraq have to use the appropriate level of restraint to the mission."

In another case, captured by a phtographer for Agence France-Presse, a man who voiced opposition to the coalition was handcuffed, and had masking tape put over his mouth for "making anti-coalition statements." The scene took place in front of a group of Iraq students and teachers.

Iranian journalist Amir Taheri writes in The Gulf News that the problem in Iraq is neither political nor military; 'it's the security, stupid.' And he argues that the methods that have been used to fight ordinary crime in Baghdad should now be used to fight terrorism.

The coalition and the Iraqi Governing Council have had a measure of success in dealing with the wave of ordinary crimes that hit Baghdad in the immediate aftermath of liberation. That success has been achieved through the organization of Iraqi police units and the establishment of neighbourhood-watch networks that supply the information needed for prevention and detection of crime. That method has not been used against terrorism. For reasons that are hard to fathom, the US-led administration has excluded the Governing Council and the newly created Iraqi police force from the task of combating terrorism.
Mr. Bremer was summoned Tuesday to Washington for a meeting that was seen as so urgent that he had to cancel a meeting with Polish Prime Minister Leszek Miller. Mr. Miller was in Iraq to review the situation with Polish troops stationed there. The Washington talks apparently focused on the frustration of the Bush administration with the Iraqi Governing Council, and with the worsening security situation. One option under consideration, which was put forward originally by the French, is based on the Afghanistan model. It would see the US name a new interim Iraqi leader with authority to govern the country until a constitution can be written and elections held.
But the Associated Press reports that a senior member of the Iraqi Governing Council denied the body was to blame for the lack of progress in drafting a new constitution that would enable democratic elections, and a return to Iraqi independence.

"Such accusations are unreasonable and do no good for the country," said Mahmoud Othman, a Sunni Kurd member of the US-appointed body. "The Governing Council should not alone bear the responsibility of any inefficiency ... This is supposed to be a partnership based on equality. But when Americans want to find solution for their problems, they do it in any way that suits them."
The Washington Post reports that a new Gallup Poll shows more than half of Baghdad's residents said they did not believe the United States would allow the Iraqi people to fashion their political future without the direct influence of Washington. The poll's data, which was gathered three months ago, shows the roots of many of the problems currently plaguing the US-led administration. The poll also shows how difficult it will be for the US to appoint an interim-government that does not have the support of the Iraqi people.
Only 5 percent of those polled said they believed the United States invaded Iraq "to assist the Iraqi people," and only 1 percent believed it was to establish democracy there. Three-quarters of those polled said they believed the policies and decisions of the Iraqi Governing Council – whose members were appointed in July by Coalition Provisional Authority Administrator L. Paul Bremer – were "mostly determined by the coalition's own authorities," and only 16 percent thought the council members were "fairly independent."
But members of one group that have continued to voice support for the US coalition, and its efforts in Iraq, are exiled Iraqis who have returned to their country. The Standard News of Sofia, Bulgaria, interviews Iraqi journalist Mohammad Khalaf. A resident of Sofia, Bulgaria, Mr. Khalaf covers the Balkan region as a correspondent for Kuwait’s Al-Watan. Mr. Khalaf disputes the assertions that the coalition forces are not welcome in Iraq anymore. In fact, he blames much of the problem on a lack of thoroughness by his journalistic colleages.
Foreign journalists tend to trust whatever stories they hear from taxi drivers or hotel porters. Most of the journalists do not venture outside of the Palestine Hotel, where they have been accommodated. And most of them are convinced that the Iraqis want the Americans to go home. But the latest public opinion survey refutes this hypothesis. Seventy-six percent of the respondents insisted that the US forces should stay. They think that their departure would plunge the country into a civil war. The Iraqi national is a peculiar breed – he is never content and is used to complaining. But when you accost him on the street or offer him a cup of coffee, he will reveal that now his paycheck is three times as large and that his life is getting ever better.

[Gary Sisco]

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