Someone please explain this war to me

[RBS]

There is something I don't quite understand regarding this war.

If we invade Baghdad and take it over, we are set to run the country? Does that mean that it doesn't matter whether or not Saddam Hussein is alive or not?

How does this whole scenario work? I don't mean to sound ignorant, but I simply don't understand the logistics.

I still think the whole thing is wrong, but I do want to know how our invading Iraq works in regards to setting up United States Lite.

[Tanager]

I'm just looking forward to the IPO of "Iraq, Inc."

[Pete C]

I believe Pinochet is waiting in the wings.

[Tom Storer]

Whoa, Boston Tricky! Nice avatar!

RBS,

Basically, we take over the country by brute force. This is what a military invasion is generally intended to do. When the Iraqi army no longer controls significant territory or is simply defeated and stops shooting back, then we set up the governing institutions we see fit and divvy up the spoils.

P.S. Oh, I forgot. And we liberate the grateful, celebrating Iraqi people.

[Darryl G. Thomas]

My suggestion would be to go to the pbs.org website. I think they do an excellent job of explaining te factors that have led us to weher we are.

In a nutshell (my opinion) we've had a case of a Washington think tank run amok. There's an underlaying theory that as the world's only military superpower and it's richest nation we have a responsibility to lead the world in a direction we want it to go in.

The Bush Doctrine states that we will not tolerate any dangers (real or perceived) to the US and will use preemptive force to fight these dangers. The men behind this philosophy (Cheney, Rumsfield, Wolfowitz) are part of the current adminsitration. Others, like Richard Perle have great influence in the Penatgon.

The pie-in-the-sky scenario is this: the US liberates Iraq. Iraq becomes a democracy under our infleunce. they become the next Japan or Germany. The other countries in the middle-east follows suit. despots are deposed by native populations who create democracies just like Iraq's.

[tippy]

What I've never understood is expecting Iraq to disarm while clearly showing that you intend to invade. That busts my 'puter.

[clinthopson]

All you have to do is to remember that the correct name for this war is "Operation Iraqi OIL Freedom"

[RBS]

Originally posted by Tom Storer


P.S. Oh, I forgot. And we liberate the grateful, celebrating Iraqi people.

YEEEHAWW! RIDE 'EM COWBOY!

[Darryl G. Thomas]

Tippy,

Why BS? The diplomacy part was a sham. The war part was predestined. I'm surprised Powell wasn't fired for dragging Bush kicking and sceaming tio the UN.

[Monte Smith]

What we hope happens is a better government emerges out of Baghdad. It won't be a bitchin' Nordic welfare state democracy with groovy drug laws. But it probably won't be as bad as the Saddam Baath mafia.

The evil DC think tanks (and the Kurds in the north, who already enjoy a robust democracy) are thinking a federal republic with power-sharing and checks and balances between the natural ethnic and geographical divisions in current Iraq. That means a Kurdish state in the north, a Sunni state in and around Baghdad, and a Shia state in the south. Local autonomy will be retained by the Kurds and established in the other provinces, with some power returned to a central authority--esp. in matters of defense, control of national resources, and economic policy and diplomacy.

That's the hope: a short US (perhaps international) "occupation" to establish the groundwork for peace, law, and order. Meanwhile working hand in hand with Iraqis to disarm Iraq and establish this political model. Then get the hell out.

It isn't rocket science. It is much harder and more risky than rocket science. But Japan and Germany are not ridiculous comparisons for Iraq. We defeated those governments, occupied their country, and helped set up native versions of democracy. They are now not only at peace, but prosperous: the 2nd and 3rd richest countries in the world. With Iraqi resources and the education of the Iraqi people, there is no reason why Iraq can't do as well.

Iraq could never do well when the only objective in that country's politics were repression of dissent and the glorification of a hoodlum.

[Tanager]

Originally posted by Monte Smith
But Japan and Germany are not ridiculous comparisons for Iraq. We defeated those governments, occupied their country, and helped set up native versions of democracy. They are now not only at peace, but prosperous: the 2nd and 3rd richest countries in the world. With Iraqi resources and the education of the Iraqi people, there is no reason why Iraq can't do as well.

I do feel they're somewhat ridiculous comparisons:

Both Japan and Germany had better industrial and economic bases prior to WWII. We didn't set up a "native" version of democracy in Germany, they had one before Hitler - it just got hijacked. But the people there remembered a democratic government, so convincing them autocracy wasn't so great wasn't that hard.

The education of the Iraqi people is largely a myth at this stage, IMHO. Years ago, you'd have been right. But this is a country in which the people have lived under crippling sanctions (and the costs of wars and you-know-whom) for years - universities have closed, many citizens who would have otherwise attended haven't been able to afford to attend school/university. The social institutions necessary for a working democratic state just don't exist in Iraq in the same fashion in which they did in Germany or even Japan.

And let's not forget that we didn't demonize the Japanese Emperor - we simply forced him to renounce his divinity, but he was able to stay on as a stabilizing figure. I somehow doubt anyone envisions Saddam playing that role.

So yes, I think comparisons to Germany and Japan are without merit.

[clinthopson]

THe comparison with Germany and Japan is odious in a number of ways.

Both countries had a literate, cohesive population, not a number of squabbling, uneducated segments.

Japan and Germany started WWII, they were the aggressors. We are starting WWIII, we are the aggressors.

The after effects of WWII were that Japan, Germany, and the rest of Europe was rebuilt with huge help from the US.

The Iraqi infrastructure may be rehabilitated by the US, because of the puddle of oil under the sand. But the people of Iraq will continue to hate us as will the vast majority Moslem population of the Mid-East.

And now Shrub has managed to alienate many of our long time allies and trading partners.

THis futile war will not stop terrorism. It will continue.

[Pete C]

Clint, I don't know what "a number of sq" is, but I believe literacy is pretty widespread in Iraq.

[clinthopson]

Pete, I hit some goddam button by mistake and the thing posted before I had a chance to complete my remarks.

I went back in and edited and am now a happy guy.

Pretty quick on the trigger there, man.

[Monte Smith]

Iraq is literate. Hey, even Saddam is reputed to have written some potboiler novels. The UN report on human development in the Arab world (2002) reported that more books were translated in the tiny nation of Greece than in the entire Arabic world. Yet of the Arabic world, the Iraqis have long been considered a most cosmopolitan and modern population. Sanctions haven't disturbed that.

A comparison of Iraq to post-war Japan and Germany can have merits or not (I don't believe it can be "odious"), but the point is not the exact congruence between these states. Iraq has its own advantages and disadvantages as the patient on the democracy operation table. Only time will tell. If the USA or Iraq fucks this attempt up, we can always put everything back in its place and re-install Saddam. (Yuk yuk yuk).

[Pete C]

Originally posted by clinthopson
Pretty quick on the trigger there, man.

That was just to give the illusion that I'm an equal opportunity ball buster.

[walto]

We can do this for them, we can do that for them. You are such a Pyle character, Monte.

I don't know for sure, but I'd wager that the majority of Iraqis would rather have running water right now and a few minutes without cluster bombs falling all around them than all the fruits of your good intentions for them. You say you believe in democracy, but...

[tippy]

It's about a handful of people deciding they know what's best for the entire world.

Monte, you seem to suck up that Bush regime propaganda like a huge natural sponge. I am not as readily deceived by that spin. I have to wonder what excuse you will drum up when military victory morphs into intense, widespread hatred for the invaders and a new crop of terrorists--inspired by the Bush gang--goes to work in earnest.

Liberation--my extrémité arrière!

[Clay Fink]

Originally posted by tippy
It's about a handful of people deciding they know what's best for the entire world.

And that's just the way it has to be. Don't worry your little head about it dearie. Just keep walking, looking straight ahead like you don't notice anything.

[Sand]

As far as I know, John Winthrop is responsible for all this.

[Monte Smith]

We shall see, mes amis.

[Tanager]

Originally posted by Monte Smith
the Iraqis have long been considered a most cosmopolitan and modern population. Sanctions haven't disturbed that.

Nonsense. They've closed down numerous educational institutions, it's become incredibly difficult for Iraqis to import technology or expertise (or export their own peeps, get them educated, and bring them home), etc.

[Monte Smith]

Tan: So that's why Syrians, Palestinians, Somalis, etc. flock to Iraqi universities? There was a story on NPR three weeks ago about buslouds of Somali students leaving Iraq before the Yanks came in. They were upset at the interruption of their studies.

Certainly I will grant you that getting a tech education must be tough under the sanctions regimen. That will change pretty quick.

[RainyDay]

I'm reminded of something Dick Gregory said during the Vietnam war eons ago. To paraphrase, if democracy is such a wonderful thing, why aren't people trying to steal it from us instead of us trying to ram it down their throats?

[Monte Smith]

Originally posted by RainyDay
I'm reminded of something Dick Gregory said during the Vietnam war eons ago. To paraphrase, if democracy is such a wonderful thing, why aren't people trying to steal it from us instead of us trying to ram it down their throats?

Hmm. Maybe it has something to do with Saddam Hussein feeding the would-be democracy thieves head first or feet first down plastic shredding machines depending on how quick he wants them to die?

[Darryl G. Thomas]

Actually I thought Arab students were flocking to America instead of Iraq, well until the aftermath of 9/11.

Monte, I hope your crystal ball's true. I'm pessimistic. The stated goals of this exercise were to prevent Iraq from giving WMDs to terrorists groups (probably the most doable of the goals because we'll be running the damn place), and democracize a region that has never known democracy (except for Israel). I'm not counting the liberation of the Iraqi people because I don't believe the originators of this plan really cared about those folks. That was just a bone thrown to us bleeding hearts to keep us from bitching too much (in didn't work, but you can't blame them for trying).

Here's what I see: America's isolated diplomacy wise. No big deal in carrying out this war but someone's got to pay the repair bills afterwards. Iraqi oil's not enough, I hear it'll be a decade before the wells are pumping at full capacity.

An increase in terrorism. It's hard to believe the Arab world could hate us more than they did pre-invasion, but I think we've pulled that one off.

Proliferation of nuclear arms. We're talking N. Korea and Iran. That "axis of evil" speech really paid off. Plus we've proven that we weren't just fooling about invading peoples' countries. Good luck in convincing the remaining axis members that we just meant Iraq.

Now if the Bush Doctrine's good for a second term (I think it's a lock) we're going to have to pay for all these invasions and the standing armed forces to pull it off. I think we're running out of money. That's why the USSR collapse, we out-spent their asses.

And when the bill comes in! I hate to be the cat who has to explain to a bunch of baby boomers why social security, Medicare, and medicaid had to be nixed because we can't afford those little goodies because Syria's next on the list and that Gaddaffi guy that pissed off Reagan is still around.

[Monte Smith]

DT: "Monte, I hope your crystal ball's true."

It's not a crystal ball, Darryl. RBS began this thread with a question, I think a sincere one, about what's the game plan on Iraqi democracy. I think the game plan is some kind of power-sharing federal republic. But a having a plan is no guarantee of results, and all your concerns are valid ones.

[Clay Fink]

Monte. You're head's much too far up your ass to see that this is about conquest and domination of the region. People have convinced themselves that this about all sorts of things that it really isn't about; WOMDs, 9/11, Democracy. It's pretty clear to me that the neo-con take on how to manage threats to US power, and the existance of Israel, is by military force.

"Iraqi Freedom" is a sales slogan. That's all. This place will be ungovernable for a long time, especially with people from all over the Islamic world coming into Iraq to fight the US. We'll govern Iraq like the Brits did; by killing people.

[Tanager]

Originally posted by Monte Smith
Tan: So that's why Syrians, Palestinians, Somalis, etc. flock to Iraqi universities? There was a story on NPR three weeks ago about buslouds of Somali students leaving Iraq before the Yanks came in. They were upset at the interruption of their studies.

Certainly I will grant you that getting a tech education must be tough under the sanctions regimen. That will change pretty quick.

Monte, if I understand you correctly, you've argued in previous posts:

a) the Iraqis are relatively cosmopolitan and educated with respect to other Arab or Middle Eastern nations.

b) sanctions have not diminished this fact to any great degree (nor have they impacted Iraq's status as a center of learning, witness the quote from you above)

Somalis flocking to a country to learn doesn't mean jack to me. Somalia hasn't a real national government, let alone a functioning university system. You used an NPR report above as the basis of your argument, so I'll cite one as well: in November 2001, NPR ran a story how the Iraqi educational system had been so crippled that very few Iraqis had any chance of getting a real education, let alone attaining the same educational or economic standards their parents once enjoyed. So yes, we'll have to rebuild that, too, and it will be years before Iraq has a functioning home-grown professional class for the future.