Does Dean's Post-Iowa Meltdown Spell the End?

[Monte Smith]

Do you think Dean's post-Iowa lunatic display means it is all over the Dean campaign?

[moneyp]

I think people will have forgotten about it in a couple of weeks.

[GoodSpeak]

What are you really afraid of, Monte...eh?

[Monte Smith]

Originally posted by GoodSpeak
What are you really afraid of, Monte...eh?

Prison.

[crawjo]

I voted yes. The rejection of Dean, to my mind, signals that the Democrats are getting serious about beating Bush in November, and they know that Dean isn't the guy to do that. He's mobilized a lot of the electorate, but his abrasive style won't play in a general election.

The further Dean falls, the tougher it will be for Bush in November.

[GoodSpeak]

Vote republican.


It's easier than thinking.

[Ron Thorne]

I had misgivings about Dean long before he headed for Iowa, but that display was beyond freaky. He was totally out-of-control, beginning with handing his coat to Tom Harkin as if he were his lacky.

His change of demeanor and happy face tie in New Hampshire didn't do anything to asuage my concerns.

[GoodSpeak]

The man is a doctor...not a politician.

Isn't that what all you anti-career politician types WANTED?


Suave and smooth he ain't, BFD.

[Am I missing something here?]

SHEE-it.


Here's to having it both ways.

[jesus marion joseph]

Originally posted by Ron Thorne
I had misgivings about Dean long before he headed for Iowa, but that display was beyond freaky. He was totally out-of-control, beginning with handing his coat to Tom Harkin as if he were his lacky.

His change of demeanor and happy face tie in New Hampshire didn't do anything to asuage my concerns.

If you were to read a transcript of what Dean said, you'd think it was pretty much what one would expect him to say after suffering a bad showing. It was the delivery of the words that was really weird. That gutteral screech at the end was just plain odd. I didn't expect there to be as much of a to-do about it as there has been. The media have really latched onto the strangeness of his display.

Of course, a strong showing in New Hampshire would probably change everything..........

[Ron Thorne]

Originally posted by jesus marion joseph
If you were to read a transcript of what Dean said, you'd think it was pretty much what one would expect him to say after suffering a bad showing. It was the delivery of the words that was really weird. That gutteral screech at the end was just plain odd. I didn't expect there to be as much of a to-do about it as there has been. The media have really latched onto the strangeness of his display.

Of course, a strong showing in New Hampshire would probably change everything..........

I agree, jmj. I found nothing strange about what he was saying, but everything strange about his delivery, an almost demented style. I would have been surprised if the media didn't notice and latch onto this performance, frankly.

[steve(thelil)]

I don't know if the rant really indicates anything about Dean, but I think it could scare off alot of people.

[john williams]

I voted yes too. Its been showing on TV a bit, and we get McNeil - Lehrer in the afternoons in Australia. I don't pretend to understand the US system, however, I thought Dean was a little shrill to say the least, and weird, yes. Its a pity coz the world needs someone to knock out Bush. He is a danger to everone, oh... except his oil buddies of course.

Are there any other Democratic candidates worthy of the position they aspire to?

[walto]

I think he's all done, even if he does well in NH. Not so much because of the screech (which was undoubtedly bad) but because he's started to turn the mainstream voter off. I hear a bunch of people talking just prior to the caucuses about why they'd changed their preference over the past couple of days and it was clear that Dean didn't wear well. Too angry. Plus, how is he going to get away with his "skiing deferment" in places like Indiana? He's finito.

With respect to JBW's question, I think the best of them (Graham and Moseley-Braun) have already dropped out, though I really don't know anything about Edwards. Kerry's a bullshit artist from way back, and I'm glad to see Gephardt out.

[jesus marion joseph]

In some respects, Democrats may fare better in the long run by losing the election this year, depending upon what Bush would do over the next four years. It's possible he could alienate large enough portions of the voting population to "poison" the GOP for a couple of election cycles. Plus, Hillary woudl be able to run in 2008, which she probably wouldn't do against an incumbent Democrat (Ted K, take note).

Then again, maybe not.

[Gary Sisco]

His campaign's a dead man that hasn't fallen over yet.

[Gordon B]

Rockin' Howard

[Gary Sisco]

It wasn't his squeal that put him in third place. It was the vote count. After he'd done two years of intensive grassroots work. That 'bout says everything that needs to be said.

[Gordon B]

Dennis Miller --

"We used to play name the states in the back seat of my car on my family vacations -- it didn't mean we were ready to be president..."

[Gordon B]

Seriously, there are three nails that may shut Dean's coffin.

1. He and Gephardt attacked each other enough for #3 and 4, Kerry and Edwards to move up.
2. Only 14% of Iowa caucus voters said the Iraq War was their top issue.
3. He made himself the subject of ridicule with his post-defeat rant.

#3 is probably fatal.

I think that Clark would be a weak general election candidate because of his well documented contradictory positions.

How will the country be different with a President Kerry versus a President Edwards? I have no idea. Does anybody else have an opinion? Kerry will argue that Edwards lacks experience and Edwards will argue that Kerry is a Washington insider but where do they differ on public policy?

[Monte Smith]

The only reason so far as I can tell to prefer Edwards over Kerry is that if Kerry wins, I will have to switch to Hunt's. And I've always been a Heinz man.

"Been saying that for years, as far as that goes." - Gary

Hunts blowz. But you have to at least admire Kerry's wife, and she would give great soundbites for the next four years.

Why just the other day when asked why she thought her husband did so well in Iowa she stated loudly and clearly that "the people of Iowa are close to the earth".

Air tight case there my friends.

Gordon, it was interesting to see how Edwards stayed away from the negative attacks in Iowa. If he could sustain that route, and focus all of his energy on his message, that may be enough to put him out in front.

Yes, he lacks experience, but to a certain extent I think that is the direction the American public has moved over the last few years. Take the elections of Ventura and Arnie for examples of this. Career politicians are no longer the order of the day.

Plus, because of his lack of experience as compared to some of his cohorts, it just means he's carrying less baggage into this election, which could definitely be a MAJOR plus. And of the big four candidates, he seems to be the only one who is actually saying much of anything with substance at this point. Though thats not really saying much.

[Gordon B]

The pundits thought that Kerry's campaign was dead , but Theresa Heinz was confident that her husband was going to ketch up to Howard Dean by caucus day.

Scott, how is Edwards more substantive than Kerry? If they had an actual debate, where would they differ on policy?

[Monte Smith]

Can America stand four to eight years of tomato sauce jokes? Probably.

57 varieties, baby!

I'm not saying that Edwards IS more substantive than Kerry, what I'm saying is that Edwards is the only one saying anything substantial at this time.

Kerry has been far too busy slinging mud, while Edwards has been out there talking to the people and avoiding all the negative stuff.

Neither of them have actually layed out much as far as policy is concerned, not publicly anyway. But your question IS a good one, and I'm sure that they are not that far apart. Time to do some reading on their websites.

But my main point is that Kerry is busy launching attacks on rivals, while Edwards is quietly connecting with the people. Thats going to count for a lot in the long run. I guess thats how I should have worded it before.

This is my first time seriously studying an election year from begining to end, so I'm still a lightweight. But I'm learning. I'll check out both of their policies and get back to you.

[walto]

Kerry's campaigns have always been particularly expert at making nasty, often unjustified attacks on other candidates while simultaneously decrying other people's often justified criticisms as "pathetic" or "desperate" or "a sad commentary."

[Root Doctor]

While it was great fun to have Dean's rally-to-the troops speech taken out-of-context by the lazy likes of serial plagiarist Mike Barnicle and the other cable news dunces (my 7-year old has been doing a killer impersonation of it), all we can learn from it is the Dean campaign has yet to master old media as well as it has the new. And as a result, he's probably toast in this issue-free era of political, uh, debate and analysis. Despite all the missteps, perceived and real, over the last few weeks, he's still raking in tons of dough: $600K since Monday, versus Kerry's $200K over the same period. This may give him some enormous backroom clout in the coming months.

Having never voted for Dean, I don't particularly care what happens to him. I do think he made an enormous mistake in not being himself, namely a dull, pedantic, well-intentioned schlub. The firebrand role is clearly a poor fit.

[Brian Olewnick]

You mean we coulda had Schlub vs. Shrub?

[Root Doctor]

Originally posted by Brian Olewnick
You mean we coulda had Schlub vs. Shrub?

It's enough to make Howard Fineman more incontinent than usual.

[GoodSpeak]

From today's Fresno Bee:


By RON FOURNIER, AP Political Writer

LEBANON, N.H. (January 22, 2004 11:31 AM EST) - A humbled Howard Dean, saying "I sometimes say things that get me in trouble," argued Thursday that voters will see through his flaws and rally to his troubled presidential candidacy.

"I'm not blow-dried. I'm not coached," Dean said as he sought to recover from his third-place Iowa finish and mounting concern over his scream-filled speech on caucus night. "I don't look at polls, and even if I did they didn't do me any good in Iowa."

Dean fell 5 to 10 percentage points behind John Kerry in the most recent polls for the New Hampshire primary, set for Tuesday.

Strolling the stage of a renovated opera house Thursday, Dean made light several times of the political blunder, telling supporters with a raspy voice, "I still have not recovered my voice from my screeching in Iowa."

Dean's guttural yells Monday night punctuated his poor finish and raised questions about his political judgment and temperament. Even his own advisers believe the performance damaged his standing in New Hampshire.

Dean sought to put the best face on the fallout, telling a crowd of several hundred that voters will see through his faults.

"Look, I'm not a perfect person. I have my warts. I sometimes say things that get me in trouble. I wear suits that are cheap. But I say what I think and I believe what I say, and I'm willing to say things that are not be popular but ordinary people know are right," he said. "In other words, I lead with my heart and not my head. That's the only chance we have against George Bush."

The remarks reflected how high the stakes have become for Dean. He began the year 25 percentage points ahead of the pack in New Hampshire polls, the clear front-runner overall, and is suddenly talking with vague hope about keeping his campaign alive.

"This has been a great campaign and you know what you're going to do on Tuesday is make this campaign continue all the way" until the Democratic nomination, "and then we're going on to election day, and then one year from Jan. 20, which was a day or so ago, we're going to change this country," he said.

Dean's lead in New Hampshire polls dissolved in the run-up to Iowa, where his miscues and criticism from his rivals drove up his unfavorability ratings. Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, who won Iowa, quickly closed the gap this week.

Dean, who said he's fighting off a cold, spent the night at his home in nearby Burlington, Vt., where he and his advisers continued to polish their comeback strategy. They've decided to tone down his rhetoric and focus on his record as a five-term governor of Vermont, arguing that he is the one candidate who has produced reforms instead of just talked about them.

It is the same tactic used by President Bush after he was defeated here in the 2000 GOP primary by Sen. John McCain, a self-styled political reformer. Bush left New Hampshire with a new slogan pointing to his record in Texas, "reformer with results."

Dean did not mention his rivals by name, but the point was not lost on the 500 or so supporters when he said, "I'm campaigning against a system where politicians will say anything just to get elected."

He said America needs change, "but we're not going to do that by having somebody from Washington."

Dean is running against three senators - Kerry, John Edwards of North Carolina and Joe Lieberman of Connecticut - as well as retired Army Gen. Wesley Clark of Arkansas.

In a lengthy question-and-answer session, one voter told Dean to take care of his voice by drinking hot tea and speaking more from the diaphragm. "Don't carry so much tension," the man said.

Dean, his campaign on the line, laughed, placed his hand on his stomach and said in a low voice, "Speaking from the diaphragm works really well."

[GoodSpeak]

Dean's speech: Tell me what the problem is.

[/IMG]


THE RACE TO THE WHITE HOUSE
'We're Going to Fight and Fight and Fight'


This is the speech that Democratic presidential candidate Howard Dean gave to supporters at the Val Air Ballroom in West Des Moines on Monday night, shortly after learning he had placed third among four leading candidates in the Iowa caucuses.

Dean: Well, you guys, you have already got the picture here. I was about to say, you know, I'm sure there are some disappointed people here. You know what, you know something, you know something, if you had told us one year ago that we were going to come in third in Iowa, we would have given anything for that.

And, you know something, not only are we going to New Hampshire, Tom Harkin, we're going to South Carolina and Oklahoma and Arizona and North Dakota and New Mexico. We're going to California and Texas and New York. And we're going to South Dakota and Oregon and Washington and Michigan. And then we're going to Washington, D.C., to take back the White House! Yeah! We will not give up.



Audience: (In unison) No!



Dean: We will not give up in New Hampshire.

Audience: (In unison) No!



Dean: We will not give up in South Carolina.



Audience: (In unison) No!



Dean: We will not give up in Arizona.



Audience: (In unison) No!



Dean: Or New Mexico.



Audience: (In unison) No!



Dean: Oklahoma.



Audience: (In unison) No!



Dean: North Dakota.



Audience: (In unison) No!



Dean: Delaware.

Audience: (In unison) No!



Dean: Pennsylvania.



Audience: (In unison) No!

Dean: Ohio.



Audience: (In unison) No!



Dean: Michigan.



Audience: (In unison) No!



Dean: We will not quit now or ever. We want our country back for ordinary Americans.

And we're going to win in Massachusetts and North Carolina and Missouri and Arkansas and Connecticut and New York and Ohio.

Let me — wait a minute. Wait a minute. Wait a minute. Wait. Wait a minute.

There are some polite things we have to do here. And the first is to thank some people. I want to thank Jeani Murray (Dean's Iowa campaign chief) and her extraordinary Iowa people. She has worked so hard. Come on up here, Jeani. Yeah, come on up. Jeani Murray, come on. Let me thank Jeani and all her people in Iowa. You worked hard. You got our ticket punched to New Hampshire, and I appreciate it. You should be so proud of it. You are a hard-working Iowa staff.

Let me thank Tom Harkin. You are so lucky to have a United States senator who understands what it is to stand up for ordinary Americans, and he is the leader in the United States Senate to take our country back for ordinary Americans again.

Let me thank Berkley Bedell and Dave Nagle, two former congressmen from Iowa who have been all over Iowa for us, helping us. I don't know where Dave is tonight, but I want to thank him.

Let me thank the International Union of Painters and Allied Trades for standing up. Let me thank the American Federation of State and County and Municipal Employees for all the help they've been. The Service Employees International Union, the SEIU, thank you so much.

But, most of all, let me thank you, from all over America, coming to change this country. We haven't seen this in 30 years.

Now, in my generation was the last time I saw all this stuff going on with people your age, under 30 years old. When I was your age — when I was your age we did change two presidents and changed the foreign policy of the United States of America. Now the only difference is it took six years, and we've got six months to go before we're going to do it here.

This is the changing of the generations, the passing of the torch to the new generation. It is your generation, and it's your generation that's fueled this campaign, because you know that the half-trillion-dollar deficits this president is piling up are going to be billed to you and your children, because of the terrible damage this president is doing to the environment are going to be things that you're going to have to live with, and we're going to change that.

And you have the power to change that, and we are starting right tonight.

We have just begun to fight. We have just begun to fight. And we're going to fight and fight and fight until the country becomes a place where we'll put more money into small children and their families than we will into prisons.

Where instead of giving $16 billion worth of tax breaks to oil companies and gas companies, we'll put it into renewable energy and ethanol and bio-diesel.

Where instead of giving $200 billion to the HMOs and insurance companies and the pharmaceutical companies, we'll give seniors a real prescription benefit.

I would have liked to come in first tonight, and so would you. But you know what, I want to thank the people of Iowa. I do. I have spent two years here. I've gone to all 99 counties. This is a wonderful, wonderful state with wonderful, wonderful people, and I appreciate it very, very much.

I have called Sen. [John F.] Kerry and Sen. [John] Edwards and congratulated them, and told them we would see them around the corner on the other side of the block starting tomorrow morning.

I have called Rep. [Dick] Gephardt and thanked him for a courageous run. I worked for him in 1988. I still feel some loyalty to him. He did the best he could, and I appreciate his long career of service for the United States of America.

And now, I want every single one of you who can do it to go to New Hampshire. And if you can't go to New Hampshire, I want you to go to Arizona or New Mexico or Oklahoma or Delaware or South Carolina or North Dakota. Viva New Mexico. Viva. Si, se puede. Si, se puede. Si, se puede. Si, se puede. Si, se puede. Si, se puede. Si, se puede. (Applause.)

I'm just going to close the way I always close. Because we've got to get on a plane. We've got to fly to New Hampshire, because you know what? We're going to have a big rally at 3 o'clock in the morning when we land in New Hampshire.

(Applause.)

You have the power to take back this party, so we'll stand up for Harry, what Harry Truman put in the 1948 Democratic Party platform: health care for everybody.

You have the power to take back the flag of the United States of America so that it does no longer belong solely to Jerry Falwell and Rush Limbaugh and Dick Cheney and John Ashcroft, and together we have the power to take back the White House in 2004, and that is exactly what we're going to do.

(Applause.)

Thank you very much. Thank you very much. Thank you.

The guy is fired up, he actually gives a damn....what the hell's the difficulty here?

The GOP says he's a raving lunatic.

Why?

Because he speaks his mind?

Because he has the guts to challenge the Bush Kingdom?

Because he is sick of the bullshit Dumbya passes off for leadership?

Because the Democrats in Congress have played the patsy to republican fairy tales WAY too goddam long?

Can ya help me here?