Indian Election Results

[Tanager]

I don't know if anyone else has paid much attention, but I've been watching with some interest during the build up to the recent election in India, which resulted in a stunning (and I mean STUNNING) upset of the ruling BJP-led coalition (probably something like center-right to right, depending on the issues) by Congress, led by Sonia Gandhi, widow of the late Rajiv Gandhi. It's fascinating for many, many reasons, but one of the facets that I really think merits attention from most of us in the West is how it's revealed the perception from within of what had been widely seen as India's economic ascendency. While there were, to be sure, multiple reasons and motivations for voting the BJP and Vajpayee out of power, there had been many stories covering the gap (still a yawning chasm in India, and it's sure to remain that way for some time (IMHO), sadly) between the haves and the have-nots. Here's a very interesting story from the NYT:

Story from the NYT

[mke]

I guess it also shows that many people are not as reticent as Sisco about voting a foreign-born person leader!

[Tanager]

Originally Posted by mke

I guess it also shows that many people are not as reticent as Sisco about voting a foreign-born person leader!

That was actually a huge campaign issue and something on which the BJP sought to capitalize. I'm reminded, however, of the rejoinder Mother Theresa delivered once when challenged on her "Indianness": roughly paraphrased from memory, "You are Indian by chance. I am Indian by choice."

[Monte Smith]

Tan:

This definitely was a surprise. I'll be curious to see what it means to India's economic track and to its detente with Pakistan. I'm a sometime reader of the Times of India, so that's where I will follow the story.

Of course, due to the parliamentary system, Sonia Gandhi can become the executive of India without anyone particularly voting for a foreign-born female leader. She just happens to head the party whose candidates won the most seats this time around.

[Tanager]

Originally Posted by Monte Smith

Tan:

This definitely was a surprise. I'll be curious to see what it means to India's economic track and to its detente with Pakistan. I'm a sometime reader of the Times of India, so that's where I will follow the story.

Of course, due to the parliamentary system, Sonia Gandhi can become the executive of India without anyone particularly voting for a foreign-born female leader. She just happens to head the party whose candidates won the most seats this time around.

While that's certainly true technically, it's really not the case in reality - it was virtually assumed that, should Congress pull off the miracle, Sonia would take the premiership. And her Italian birth is probably the single best-known fact about her among Indians. So I really don't think you can separate the two - to most voters supporting Congress, Sonia was, to some extent, the individual for which they were voting.

Of course, a lot of this was just anti-incumbent rage, less a vote for Congress than a vote against the BJP.

We get India Today at home - it's very interesting to read, sort of the Time-cum-Newsweek of India, but with a rather stronger pro-nationalistic bent at times. One newspaper considered in some quarters to be better than the Times (although my relatives get the Times, so that's what I usually read myself as well) is The Hindu, which is, I believe, published somewhere in South India (I could be wildly wrong about that one).

With respect to the economic track, there was some early concern at statements by Communist leaders which implied wishes to backtrack on the privatisation, but West Bengal, which has been lead by Communist governments for decades, has been pursuing its own program of privatisation, and most of the party leaders are now saying they will support continued efforts at privatisation, albeit with some provisos (and I think they're right to add some conditions, personally). Among them are, I believe, these: privatisation must be accompanied by investments in general infrastructure, especially in poor rural areas, and investment needs to be made into a broader base of the economy, not just into those firms which are themselves already owned by one of India's large industrial juggernauts.

Personally, I'd also like to see India's development be done with better regard to the environment as well - I realize that environmental concerns are often seen as a luxury of the bourgouisie, but nonetheless, the impacts of many projects there have been very detrimental to the environment, and the human effects are not negligible, either. And the water shortage is only going to get worse. Many farmers are utterly destitute, even by Indian standards, due to water shortages, but the shortsighted way in which water has been managed has only served to worsen that situation - the water table in W. India has continued to shrink for years now, although a few private engineers are finally trying to spread the gospel of better pluviculture.

Sonia has tried to make clear that she fully intends to continue the detente with Pakistan, and I think she has fairly solid support from doing so within her party. The recent cricket test series, perhaps surprisingly to those not familiar with matters over there, really helped in garnering popular support. I don't think she has any choice but to continue, to be honest.

[Deke]

There's something vaguely Floridan about this election. Gandhi was wa-a-ay behind in the pre-election polls, she even admitted, in private, to being on a hiding to nothing. The apres-voting polls showed the BJP so far ahead that they declared themselves the winners, to the accompaniment of much dancing in the street.

Unless several million Indian voters were being rather parsimonious with the truth, you have to ask how the pollsters could get it so badly wrong that even Gandhi herself thought she was a no hoper.

[mke]

Maybe it has something to do with the demographically-limited campaigning tactics used by the BJP as described in the NYT article Tangager linked to?

[Tanager]

I don't think there's anything Floridian about it at all. I just think the BJP (and, to be fair, everyone else) badly misjudged the appeal that the "India Shining" campaign theme would have for the average (by which I mean the truly average, not the economic middle class, which is a really tiny, tiny majority in India) Indian voter. They assumed that their brand of economic nationalism would sell, when in the hinterlands, which haven't benefitted a lick, voter discontent was so far off the radar noone even noticed it. And the pollsters themselves concentrated on the urban middle class as well, which makes their missing the boat quite understandable, if only in hindsight.

[Monte Smith]

Originally Posted by Tanager

While that's certainly true technically, it's really not the case in reality - it was virtually assumed that, should Congress pull off the miracle, Sonia would take the premiership. And her Italian birth is probably the single best-known fact about her among Indians. So I really don't think you can separate the two - to most voters supporting Congress, Sonia was, to some extent, the individual for which they were voting.

Then they're screwed, 'cause Sonia Gandhi has announced that she will not be the next PM. She's walked away from the leadership of a nation of a billion people. I bet you sort of have to think about matters before you do something like that!

[Tanager]

Originally Posted by Monte Smith

Than they're screwed, 'cause Sonia Gandhi has announced that she will not be the next PM. She's walked away from the leadership of a nation of a billion people. I bet you sort of have to think about matters before you do something like that!

Well, like I said, I think it was, despite my assertions that voting for Congress =~ voting for Sonia, more of an anti-BJP protest vote than anything (or generally anti-incumbent, since Congress got thrown out of power in at least one state). I'm surprised - as of last night, Congress was lining her up to be the PM. But the BJP has really gone after her hard for her foreign birth, which is strange, b/c, as I said, this was hardly a secret, and yet Congress won the election anyway.

I have no idea who will take the premiership now - Manmohan Singh should return to his former post of Finance Minister, for which he's best suited (and he is, despite BJP bragging, the major architect of much of India's market reform policy). Beyond that, who knows. This is a huge shock. I'm disappointed, frankly, b/c I think it's a victory for bigotry and silliness if she resigns just on the basis of the foreign-birth controversy. BWTFDIK.

[patricia]

Originally Posted by Tanager

Well, like I said, I think it was, despite my assertions that voting for Congress =~ voting for Sonia, more of an anti-BJP protest vote than anything (or generally anti-incumbent, since Congress got thrown out of power in at least one state). I'm surprised - as of last night, Congress was lining her up to be the PM. But the BJP has really gone after her hard for her foreign birth, which is strange, b/c, as I said, this was hardly a secret, and yet Congress won the election anyway.

I have no idea who will take the premiership now - Manmohan Singh should return to his former post of Finance Minister, for which he's best suited (and he is, despite BJP bragging, the major architect of much of India's market reform policy). Beyond that, who knows. This is a huge shock. I'm disappointed, frankly, b/c I think it's a victory for bigotry and silliness if she resigns just on the basis of the foreign-birth controversy. BWTFDIK.

I heard just a few minutes ago that Ms. Ghandi has declined the position of Prime Minister, due to the opposition due to her not being India-born.
So, now what???

[Tanager]

Originally Posted by patricia

So, now what???

I think that's the question many are now asking. I don't think anyone knows just yet.

Coverage indicates that amongst the party faithful, her refusal is proving a bitter pill to swallow: article from The Hindu

[Tanager]

This article indicates that Manmohan Singh may be chosen after all as the next PM. This will no doubt please those in favor of continuing the privatization efforts and ease pressures on the equities markets in India. He's long been well-thought of in the West, as well (he was one of the brighter lights in the last Congress government). I would take this as a very strong sign, Monte, that there should be no fears of backtracking on economic reforms. But I would hope that the allies in the UPA keep things honest with respect towards more investment in infra in poorer, more rural districts, as well as bettering India's pretty poor record on environmental matters - things that can get lost in the fray in the rush to privatise.

[mke]

What a strange turn of events. Sonia's let me down by letting Sisco continue to be sort of right.

[Monte Smith]

I agree, Tan, that the appointment of Singh would be a good sign of policy stability and the continuation of market reforms. I'm for that. Now on my other question, as to what this election means to Indo-Pakistani detente, I dunno. I don't know Singh's standing with the Pakistanis or his own opinions on these matters.

[Monte Smith]

Originally Posted by Tanager

Coverage indicates that amongst the party faithful, her refusal is proving a bitter pill to swallow: article from The Hindu

Yeah, tell it to this guy!



Gangacharan Rajput, a Congress party member, threatens to shoot himself if Sonia Gandhi backs out of becoming India's prime minister, outside the party's headquarters in New Delhi, earlier in the day May 18, 2004. Sonia Gandhi, heir to India's Nehru-Gandhi dynasty, tearfully gave up her chance to become prime minister on Tuesday to protect her new Congress government from damaging attacks over her Italian birth. REUTERS/Kamal Kishore

[mke]

I saw some footage of that guy. He was on top of a car, carrying a whip or rope of some sort that he was swinging about, perhaps to stop people from grabbing him? It was rather odd.

[Gordon B]

Originally Posted by Monte Smith

I agree, Tan, that the appointment of Singh would be a good sign of policy stability and the continuation of market reforms. I'm for that. Now on my other question, as to what this election means to Indo-Pakistani detente, I dunno. I don't know Singh's standing with the Pakistanis or his own opinions on these matters.

We all should have bought an India stock index fund after Monday's final drop. It's up strong today for the second day in a row. Good news for India, although I disagree with Gary on principle.