Swing states

[Tom Storer]

I keep reading that "a handful of swing states" will decide the 2004 election. I went looking to see what they were and came across a site called www.swing04.com that claims to be "regularly updated." It lists twenty-three states! That's some handful, close to half the states. Would any of you politics junkies like to chime in and say whether you think all of these really are swing states? Are there any official criteria to be called a swing state?

Arizona
Arkansas
Colorado
Delaware
Florida
Iowa
Louisiana
Maine
Michigan
Minnesota
Missouri
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Mexico
North Carolina
Ohio
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Tennessee
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin

[stonemonkts]

I believe Pennsylvania is considered a very key swing state.

I'd be interested to see if there is a way to rank them in order of importance, if such a thing is possible.

[Dr Dave]

According to the NY Times, there are 16 swing states. Here they are, with the electoral votes they represent:

Florida - 27
Pennsylvania - 21
Ohio - 20
Michigan - 17
Missouri - 11
Washington State - 11
Arizona - 10
Minnesota - 10
Wisconsin - 10
Iowa - 7
Oregon - 7
Arkansas - 6
Nevada - 5
New Mexico - 5
West Virginia - 5
Maine - 4

Obviously, Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan are the big prizes.

[Al in NYC]

If voter turnout numbers in Michigan can be driven up by the Dems for Kerry the way they were for Gore in 2000, particularly in the City of Detroit, then I think he'll win there in a race that won't be as close as polls predict. Most polls underrepresent minority voters, and that's especially true in Michigan where many polling firms simply won't send their people into cities like Detroit and Flint (I know, I used to do this work there).

Minority turnout is key in most of the larger states on this list. That is, assuming that Republican state governments don't job the voting rolls in minority districts like they did in Florida.

Bad news for the libby's here.

The Sanctity Of Marriage proposal here passed with 70% in favor this past election.

Guess you can go ahead and hand this state to Bush.

[clinthopson]

I though this thread would be about where the Benny Goodman and Artie Shaw fans are located.

[groover]

Originally Posted by clinthopson

I though this thread would be about where the Benny Goodman and Artie Shaw fans are located.

"Swing states" could refer to the virtual spaces you're transported to when you're getting really deep into a swing groove.

There are other worlds they have not told you of.

[Tom Storer]

RBS sent me to this site:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Pres...cking_Poll.htm

Looks to be a good place to mull over the swing states, as it's updated regularly.