Hope

[cookie]

So, there's this musician I know and last April, when we were catching a donut and coffee on the way home, the election came up. This guy was complaining about how terrible the Bush administration was and how he hoped they'd be defeated. I asked him if he planned to vote. He said no, that he hadn't voted in years. I asked him if he was registered and he said that yes he was, but that his vote didn't count anyway and that "all politicians are alike."

Well, I worked with the same musician on Saturday and politics came up. He went off on Bush and how evil they were. "I've been doing alot of reading and I think they're disgusting liars." So, once again I asked him: "Are you going to vote?" and he said emphatically "Yes, I am."

So that gives me hope. This guy who hasn't voted for years is going to vote in this election. It doesn't hurt that the cat's gonna vote for my candidate, but if this guy, who hasn't voted for years, is going to this year, I say that's a good thing. It gives me hope that perhaps things won't be as close as they appear in current polls. I think some folks may come out of the woodwork for this one.

[Enforcer]

One thing that has really surprised me is the amount of unflinching support for John Kerry coming from public figures, many of whom usually at least try to be vague or thinly veil their political leanings. Not this year. Entertainers are unusually organized in their efforts to persuade voters, and Bruce Springsteen is flat out telling people to vote for John Kerry. Stuff like that doesn't normally happen on this scale. There seems to be a really extreme public outcry against this President, different than the usual complaints you hear in the course of a Presidential term. The polarity is high, and there are plenty who will support the President as well.

The only conclusion that makes sense is that it's being driven mostly by the war, which people obviously have strong feelings about. The rest of the stuff going on right now is par for the course in any given administration.

Anyway, it makes me wonder, like you, how accurate the polls are.

[patricia]

The accuracy of any poll is in who is asked, what they are asked and how the questions they are asked, are asked.

The pollsters usually present a multiple choice questionaire. Your answers, should you be polled, result in whatever conclusion is reached.

It must also be remembered, as Cookie has said, that this year, even people who usually sit home are feeling moved to vote.

Also, the registration of new voters is amazingly high. Although that doesn't automatically translate into people who actually go to the polls on Nov 2 and vote, they can't vote if they didn't register. They registered so the next step is the voting booth.

None of the seldom-voters or first time voters are polled. The polling results are based on people who voted last time, less than fifty percent of those eligeable. So, in short, the polls this time don't indicate anything very precise.

[mke]

Originally Posted by patricia

The accuracy of any poll is in who is asked, what they are asked and how the questions they are asked, are asked.

The pollsters usually present a multiple choice questionaire. Your answers, should you be polled, result in whatever conclusion is reached.

Not quite: the raw data is then "treated" before a final result is published. What that treatment consists in is each polling company's secret.

[patricia]

Originally Posted by mke

Not quite: the raw data is then "treated" before a final result is published. What that treatment consists in is each polling company's secret.

Thank you for clearing that up. It's kind of like the secret ingredient in KFC then??

[Deke]

I still have a sneaking admiration for the Australian system. Failure to vote is an arrestable offence. It's just a pity that it keeps bringing in right wing governments...

That flys against all accepted logic. It's always assumed to be the lefties that stay at home. Well, over here it is anyway.

[Enforcer]

Interesting piece that might substantiate the possibility for unexpected results. Pollsters don't count people who only use cell phones, which is a demographic primarily comprised of young people.

[Monte Smith]

Then there is my friend Matt from the PUMPY ANECDOTES thread. Matt is a Democrat because his parents are both public school teachers and he reflexively supports Kerry. But he's not political. Matt asked me in September if it was too late to register to vote and I said, "Hell yes." He said, "Damn, I figgered."

KEEP...hope...alive!
Keep...HOPE...alive!
Keep...hope...ALIVE!

[patricia]

Originally Posted by Monte Smith

Then there is my friend Matt from the PUMPY ANECDOTES thread. Matt is a Democrat because his parents are both public school teachers and he reflexively supports Kerry. But he's not political. Matt asked me in September if it was too late to register to vote and I said, "Hell yes." He said, "Damn, I figgered."

KEEP...hope...alive!
Keep...HOPE...alive!
Keep...hope...ALIVE!

Yes. Keep up the good work, Monte. The Republicans need every vote they can steal.