Prediction: why Kerry will lose

[HenryMc]

Watching the recent Aussie election where the polls said it was 50-50 and despite that the Labor Opposition took a beating I have decided that Dubya will win next months US election.

Reasons

It appears he put enough sh*t on Kerry for some of it to stick

Being Anti-War doesn't have the cache it had 20 years ago

Dubya will prosecute the war on Terror - and Middle America is still angry at ...someone , anyone

The networks appear to behind Dubya.

Bush may look like a rabbit in a spotlight but Kerry looks like a dime store indian

I hope Im wrong but...

[kenny weir]

Henry, I hope you're wrong too ...

However, the Australian result has made me reevaluate the whole US thing.

If I was a betting man, I'd definitely be punting on Bush, with maybe a side bet on him INCREASING the margin of his previous "win".

And it matters not what Kerry has done in the far or recent past, or what he does until the poll. Not a bit. It's already a done deal.

[Richardo Caerleoni]

Originally Posted by HenryMc

....Dubya will prosecute the war on Terror - and Middle America is still angry at ...someone , anyone

The networks appear to behind Dubya.

Bush may look like a rabbit in a spotlight but Kerry looks like a dime store indian

I hope Im wrong but...

Henry - I too hope you are wrong but have a gut feeling you are all too right - To me in Europe - Kerry is not a "radical" (liberal?) but at least is sane.

Bush - hey, lost for words - and I listened to that second debate.

There was a quote somewhere....America is like a plane out of control with a lunatic at the wheel? Eldrge Cleaver?

Hey, never more so.

[Pete C]

Even if Kerry wins, he'll lose due to a combination of dirty tricks and polling "irregularities."

It's so bizarre listen to a bunch of foreignors pontificate on American elections.

[Chris D]

Well, none of you are on the ground in a swing state. The air has changed. You can feel the momentum. Kerry will win. It'll be close, but he'll win. You watch.

[patricia]

Originally Posted by Pete C

Even if Kerry wins, he'll lose due to a combination of dirty tricks and polling "irregularities."

I suspect that you may be right, Pete. Already there are rumblings about the voting machines and the lists of "ineligable" voters, existing smears, upcoming smears and the general public's ignorance.
Bush may very well get his second term, escalate the war, destroy the economy, alienate, further the rest of the world and then go into retirement, with a nice pension, leaving the mess for someone else to clean up in four years.
Still, it's up to the American voters to create a different scene. Do they have the wisdom to see that DAD has gotten everyone lost, again, and still won't ask for directions. Will the multicoloured clown car called the Bush Administration careen over the cliff, packed to the doors with willing lemmings??
Stay tuned............

[kenny weir]

Originally Posted by Scott Dolan

It's so bizarre listen to a bunch of foreignors pontificate on American elections.

Scott: You've got to be shittin' me.

"Foreigners" pontificating on the US elections ... well, that'd be like Americans deciding, from their fat-assed TV-watching armchairs, the fate of Iraq, a country most of them couldn't even point to in an atlas.

More than any other, the US elections have major ramifications for world citizens in general.

We get the debates live on our tellys (even if our water does go down our plug holes the "wrong" way).

Such concerns didn't seem to faze Bush and several of henchmen from directly interferring in our campaign in support of their good pal Howard.

A bunch of foreigners? Gee thanks pal!

[kenny weir]

Originally Posted by Chris D

Well, none of you are on the ground in a swing state.

Chris, that, of course, is absolutlely true.

Again, I hope you're right. Certainly, as much as I detest Howard and his mehtods, I'd say Bush & Co are something like 100 times worse.

There was only the faintest whiff of change here, and as it turns out both parties were well aware four weeks from voting day that the result was already predictable.

[Richardo Caerleoni]

Originally Posted by Scott Dolan

It's so bizarre listen to a bunch of foreignors pontificate on American elections.

Scott...Exactly! Never felt so "excluded"! You (the US) run the world , We "foreigners" just watch. As Bush says "The Brits are with us"...Mmmmmm Don't think so. But you are right, it is your election.

So, live with the results? Sow the storm etc.?

No tears next 9/11 time...You bought it, you broke it, so, you fix it? On your own.

[Pete C]

I predict Bush will be the first 2-term U.S. President to lose the popular vote both times.

[patricia]

Originally Posted by Richardo Caerleoni

Scott...Exactly! Never felt so "excluded"! You (the US) run the world , We "foreigners" just watch. As Bush says "The Brits are with us"...Mmmmmm Don't think so. But you are right, it is your election.

So, live with the results? Sow the storm etc.?

No tears next 9/11 time...You bought it, you broke it, so, you fix it? On your own.

Exactly my reaction to Scott's little dig. If the Bush Administration had listened to the rest of the world, instead of having a "whose is bigger?" contest with Saddam Hussein, they wouldn't be in the mess they're in.
Even if Mr Bush does get his second term, he shouldn't read it as confidence in his policies, or approval of them. At best it will be a demand to clean up the mess he made, even though he can't possibly, even in four more years.
As you say though, with an attitude like Scott's it's no wonder the rest of the world, with the exception of the "coalition of the willing", few of which even have armies, have backed away from the U.S. As long as Mr Bush and Co. are in office, they will continue to do so.

BTW, Scott, spell-check "foreigners". It is not "ors". Remember for next time you want to slam us. As some wag said, "I don't care what they say about me, as long as they spell my name right".

[graypencil]

I too ,hope you're wrong Henry ( and our other offshore contributors ) ..but:

I'm VERY nervous about the Diebold voting machines ( Diebold ,headquartered in Canton OH, is a long time rabid right wing supporter with huge pockets )

And this latest ploy by some other rich rightwingnuts to ORDER the broadcast a faux anti-Kerry documentary on a series of midwestern TV stations ( generating a federal suit charging an obvious violation of the FCC charter ) do not bode well for us common folk who merely have one vote each to show our disgust with the DUBBya -ites ..

( meanwhile: I'm keeping my passport current in the event I'm forced to take up residence in Dublin ..where they are very kind taxwise to Irish/americans in the arts )

Originally Posted by Richardo Caerleoni

Scott...Exactly! Never felt so "excluded"! You (the US) run the world , We "foreigners" just watch. As Bush says "The Brits are with us"...Mmmmmm Don't think so. But you are right, it is your election.

So, live with the results? Sow the storm etc.?

No tears next 9/11 time...You bought it, you broke it, so, you fix it? On your own.

Heehee.......

You tourists are a pissy little bunch.

Look here, if you're not satisfied with your own countries policies then I'd suggest you activate yourselves over there.

We don't own Australia, Denmark, OR Communist Canada.

Hold your own leaders accountable, whiners.

Or better yet, just keeping pouting and pointing your finger at the dastardly American leaders. THAT should fix things up for you quite nicely.

[patricia]

Originally Posted by graypencil

I too ,hope you're wrong Henry ( and our other offshore contributors ) ..but:

I'm VERY nervous about the Diebold voting machines ( Diebold ,headquartered in Canton OH, is a long time rabid right wing supporter with huge pockets )

And this latest ploy by some other rich rightwingnuts to ORDER the broadcast a faux anti-Kerry documentary on a series of midwestern TV stations ( generating a federal suit charging an obvious violation of the FCC charter ) do not bode well for us common folk who merely have one vote each to show our disgust with the DUBBya -ites ..

gp, there have been several articles in various newspapers and periodicals about the Diebold machines being at least hackable. At worst, with no paper record, OR receipt to the voter, their results are completely dependant on the honour system. No offence to your leaders, but trusting them is chancy, as you saw in the last Presidential Election debacle. You are right to be concerned.

A revolution may be over-reaction, but there is a line...............isn't there???

Originally Posted by patricia

BTW, Scott, spell-check "foreigners". It is not "ors". Remember for next time you want to slam us. As some wag said, "I don't care what they say about me, as long as they spell my name right".

I thought you French folk spelled it "foreignours".

[patricia]

Originally Posted by Scott Dolan

I thought you French folk spelled it "foreignours".

Only when we want to impress our American friends with how terribly continental we are.

[jazzfiend]

Well now, it appears that Kerry will win this thing by 3 to 5 percentage points.
Most of the hordes of newly registered voters, which includes many thousands of college kids, will vote for Kerry. Doofus has demonstrated his incompetence many times over. Good riddance!

Scott, you are much sexier with the hairpiece. Way to go, dude! Hey man, I'm diiggin' the Ayler cdr as we speak. Thanks, bro!

[Richardo Caerleoni]

QUOTE: "Heehee.......

You tourists are a pissy little bunch. Look here, if you're not satisfied with your own countries policies then I'd suggest you activate yourselves over there. We don't own Australia, Denmark, OR Communist Canada."

Scott - What drugs are you on and where can we get 'em? Damn, America is a great country...Serious point, it really is.

Anyway, about to "activate" myself in Copenhagen....well play some Monk...but need a little chemical assistance? Whatever you are on?

[Deke]

When asked who America's allies were in the 2nd world war, American children named nearly every country in the world, including Iraq, Japan, Germany, and Italy.

American children grow up to be American voters.

Bush will win.

[Uli]

Am I th only foreigner who thinks Kerry will win?

[patricia]

Originally Posted by Richardo Caerleoni

QUOTE: "Heehee.......

Damn, America is a great country...Serious point, it really is.

B]

Before Election 2000 is was. It really was. Now. Not so much.
BUT, there's still hope. November 2 can be the start of the turning point, if the American voter exercises the only real power for change that they have.

If you park your buttocks on your Barcalounger, watching reality TV, instead of voting, you will have only yourselves to blame if you are looking at George [Alfred E. Neuman] Bush for the next four years.
Your choice.

[Deke]

Originally Posted by Uli

Am I th only foreigner who thinks Kerry will win?

According to the online poll the rest of the world thinks Kerry should win. Bush is fighting for second place with Nader.

That's another reason why Bush will win.

America never does what the rest of the world wants it to.

[patricia]

Originally Posted by Deke

According to the online poll the rest of the world thinks Kerry should win. Bush is fighting for second place with Nader.

That's another reason why Bush will win.

America never does what the rest of the world wants it to.

It seems as though the Bush philosophy, when it comes to global relations is that it's better to be feared than to be respected.

[Richardo Caerleoni]

Originally Posted by stonemonkts

I think Scotty takes swigs from a fifth of cheap whiskey he keeps in his locker at work, beginning around 2 pm or so.

You mean he's got that habit and STILL holds down a job?

KFC are that liberal?

As I said, America is a great country...

Scotty...one day at a time...We are all with you...but from a very large distance....just crossed the road...

[Deke]

Originally Posted by Patricia

It seems as though the Bush philosophy, when it comes to global relations is that it's better to be feared than to be respected.

It gets to me the way he refers to the rest of us as allies, then announces that he's not signing up to the International Court because he doesn't trust a bunch of folks like us to treat American war criminals with the respect they deserve.

Ironic because in the US he could still give 'em the death penalty, while the International court can't.

[lynn]

Who here lives in a swing state.

I'm in Nevada and the campaign is ruthless but registration is through the roof and I hear it is in Oregon also. Yucca Mountain and Iraq are the key issues, plus if gas prices continue to go up. $.15 since last Friday. Sitting at $2.30 for regular unleaded.

[Monte Smith]

Don't be hasty in using the Australian election to predict the outcome of any other election, because no one election is a predictor of any other election even in the same country (nevermind my naysaying here when you reflect back on the GOP successes in 2001, 2002, and 2003...those I hope are predicative as a mofo).

Having said that, some of the points that HenryMc enumerates do buoy my hopes:

It appears he put enough sh*t on Kerry for some of it to stick
I do think that the footage of Kerry and that unfortunate "Jinjiss Khan" session before Congress have turned the electorate on to what a louse Kerry is. What a phony Thurston Howell III louse. And his record in the Senate (liberal) and his flip-flops have been adequately spotlighted by the Bush campaign.

Being Anti-War doesn't have the cache it had 20 years ago
No, it really doesn't.

Dubya will prosecute the war on Terror - and Middle America is still angry at ...someone , anyone
It's the number one issue. Also probably number two and number three.

The networks appear to behind Dubya.
Now there you are wrong. The traditional networks and the Old Media in general desperately want a Kerry win. If by this misperception you mean, however, that the networks are not beholden to progressive politics as it is envisioned in Europe and by Australia's progressive minority, you're right. No institution in America is so beholden.

Bush may look like a rabbit in a spotlight but Kerry looks like a dime store indian

You hit the hail on the head here! Do Australians use dimes? Because I have been trying to think of what Kerry reminds me of (Lurch, Boris Karloff, the Mummy) and none of the images sufficed. He is a wooden indian. Remember that old Hank Williams song? Kaw-Liga!

I hope Im wrong but...
I hope you're right.

[Jazzzoline]

Originally Posted by kenny weir

Scott: You've got to be shittin' me.

"Foreigners" pontificating on the US elections ... well, that'd be like Americans deciding, from their fat-assed TV-watching armchairs, the fate of Iraq, a country most of them couldn't even point to in an atlas.

More than any other, the US elections have major ramifications for world citizens in general.

We get the debates live on our tellys (even if our water does go down our plug holes the "wrong" way).

Such concerns didn't seem to faze Bush and several of henchmen from directly interferring in our campaign in support of their good pal Howard.

A bunch of foreigners? Gee thanks pal!

Tellum!

[Jazzzoline]

Originally Posted by Scott Dolan

We don't own Australia, Denmark, OR Communist Canada.

Canada? Communist?

Well,,, maybe.